Biden and Trump have locked in party primaries, where will the US climate policy go?
On March 13, according to Xinhua News Agency, with the announcement of the results of the Democratic primary elections in Georgia and Mississippi, the incumbent President of the United States, Joe Biden, has accumulated more than half of the votes of the party delegates at this year's Democratic National Convention and has once again become the Democratic presidential candidate. And with Trump's only competitor in the party, former U.S. Permanent Representative to the United Nations Nikki Haley, announced his withdrawal from the election on the 6th local time, Trump locked in the Republican nomination on the same day as Biden. Biden and Trump will once again compete with each other, but with that comes more uncertainty about US climate policy.
Unlike Trump's ultra-negative climate policies, Biden, who has been labeled a "climate president," paid special attention to climate change during his time as a senator in Congress, from the 99th Congress (1985-1986) to the 110th Congress (2007-2008). In between, Biden has introduced a total of nine bills or resolutions as a senator, five of which are related to climate change issues (and has also participated in many other bills and resolutions related to climate change as a co-sponsor).
Since 2021, the Biden administration has attached great importance to addressing climate change through the restructuring and reform of administrative agencies, legislation, signing executive memorandums, issuing executive orders, and carrying out "mini-multilateral" climate diplomacy and other positive results. On the whole, relations with China have shown the two-sided characteristics of "competition while cooperating" and "cooperation between China and Tibet."
But looking back at 2017 and 2020, the Trump administration has almost wiped out the legacy of the Obama administration, from promoting that "climate change is fake news" and excluding "pro-climate" government officials and experts to suspending, shelving, and scrapping the climate policies of the Obama administration. It is conceivable that if Trump wins the presidential election in November, there is no guarantee that there will be another 180-degree shift in US climate policy. This is despite the fact that during the Biden administration, the Republican Party's base U.S. oil and gas industry has produced record amounts.
However, in this year's U.S. election, there are also variables within the Republican Party, that is, Trump's "extreme personality" has led to more college-educated people living in wealthy suburbs in the Republican Party choosing Haley. In addition, polls show that at present, 33% of people in the United States choose to believe Biden, and Trump is 3 percentage points more than him, reaching 36%. So, excluding factors such as traditional turnout, it is likely that the outcome of the 2024 US election will be determined by voters who voted for Haley in the Republican primary, or a more moderate image created by Trump.
In addition, with the increasing frequency of extreme weather caused by global climate change and the popularization and development of new energy technologies, interest groups in the United States that support global climate governance are growing. At the same time, with the proposal and steady progress of China's "dual carbon" goals, China's green industry market is gradually expanding, and some US multinationals with green industry layout have sought to expand their business in China, and are more inclined to support China-US climate cooperation. Climate cooperation is gradually becoming a new ballast stone for China-US relations.
However, it may be too early to think that Sino-US relations can move forward steadily in the future. In May 2022, the Biden administration proposed the establishment of the "Indo-Pacific Economic Framework" to try to lead the development of standards and norms for clean energy production and green infrastructure construction in the Indo-Pacific region, and in September 2022, the Kigali Amendment, approved by the U.S. Senate, unanimously passed an additional proposal calling for the termination of China's status as a "developing country" in the treaty and trying to make China a contributor to the "Loss and Damage Fund". In addition, the Biden administration has successively put forward concepts such as "small courtyards and high walls" and "de-risking" to promote decoupling and breaking the chain with China in key industries in an attempt to maintain US technological hegemony. In January 2023, Virginia Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin even halted Ford Motor Company's plan to build a battery plant with Chinese battery manufacturer CATL in Virginia, and on February 14, Ford and CATL announced that Ford would invest $3.5 billion to build a new battery plant in Michigan, with CATL providing technical support, which was also opposed by the Republican Party.
At present, the US presidential election is in full swing. According to the analysis of the Financial Times, the battle for the White House in 2024 will be decided from the traditional six swing states, and the topics of the Michigan and Pennsylvania elections are closely related to climate policy and green energy.
Therefore, whether Trump takes office or Biden is re-elected, it is unlikely that there will be a "bipolar reversal" in US climate policy, that is, a complete return to the extreme negativity of the Trump administration, but competition with China will be one of the priorities of governance.
