Outlook for COP29: What issues will this conference focus on?
The two-day United Nations Future Summit concluded at the United Nations Headquarters in New York on September 23, local time. About 130 heads of state and government attended the summit and adopted a series of outcome documents, including the Future Compact and its annexes, the Global Digital Compact and the Declaration on Future Generations, striving to build a safe, peaceful, just, equal, inclusive, sustainable and prosperous world. Among them, the Future Compact aims to promote the realization of the global sustainable development goals and the Paris Agreement, accelerate the transition to a world that does not use fossil fuels, and ensure a peaceful and livable future for everyone on earth.
The 28th Conference of the Parties (COP28) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) held in Dubai, United Arab Emirates last year is still vivid in my mind. The author participated in the entire year-long multilateral negotiations, meeting organization and follow-up and implementation of resolutions of COP28. COP28 can be said to be an important milestone since the Paris Agreement, creating many firsts and firsts:
The largest and highest-specification conference:In about two weeks, nearly 100,000 people participated in various activities held in the Blue Zone, including 156 heads of state and government, 22 leaders of international organizations, more than 780 ministers, more than 500 mayors, more than 50,000 students and tens of thousands of other key stakeholders, including parliamentarians, youth, businesses, charities, civil society groups and indigenous peoples.
For the first time, a resolution was reached on the first day of COP negotiations:Relevant suggestions on losses that damage the operation of the fund.
Completed the first global inventory:Review the progress made by countries in achieving the climate goals of the Paris Agreement and make new recommendations.
For the first time, a global resolution was formed on a major transformation of the energy system:Transform the energy system in a fair, orderly and equitable manner, gradually move away from fossil fuels, and accelerate actions in this critical decade to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 in accordance with science.
For the first time, a cooperation platform between the COP presidencies was formed:That is, the United Arab Emirates, which holds COP28, Azerbaijan, which holds COP29, and Brazil, which holds COP30, have launched the Partnership Platform for the Presidency of the Conference of the Parties (Troika), which is committed to ensuring that countries fulfill their collective responsibilities, support global priorities, transform resolutions such as the "United Arab Emirates Consensus" into actions by government and non-government stakeholders, and cooperate to develop a task roadmap to achieve the 1.5 ° C goal.
The intensification of climate change and the extreme weather and disasters it brings have made the negotiation process increasingly urgent. In less than two months, we will usher in COP29. This conference will mainly focus on the following five aspects in terms of negotiations:
1. Finance and the new collective quantified target for climate finance (NCQG)
The adoption of NCQG will be a critical moment in whether parties can make progress on implementation and support tools and the broader aspects of the Paris Agreement. This will be the first major funding goal after the Paris Agreement. The new goals were a key part of last year's global stocktaking results, and both climate adaptation and mitigation require significant increases in funding. While the NCQG High-Level Ministerial Dialogue will be held in Azerbaijan on October 9, parties need to engage with each other directly and use the intersessional time to make as much progress as possible before COP29. In addition, although it is regrettable that the annual funding target of US$100 billion has not been achieved as scheduled, the COP29 Chairman welcomed the OECD's announcement that all developed countries have jointly mobilized US$115.9 billion in 2022 and urged them to continue their efforts to achieve the annual US$100 billion target by 2025 in a clearer and transparent manner.
2. nationally determined contributions 3.0 (NDCs 3.0)
The Paris Agreement requires each country to outline and report its post-2020 climate actions, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Together, these climate actions determine whether the world can achieve the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement, reach the global peak of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible, and then quickly reduce emissions based on the best available scientific means, thereby achieving a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century. COP29 will urge all parties to submit their NDCs 3.0 as soon as possible and before the February 10, 2025 deadline. This round of submissions should understand the scientific basis and global inventory results based on different national conditions, and promote climate investment and financial support. Attention will also be focused on how all parties can include non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gas emissions in their upcoming nationally determined contributions. During COP29, Azerbaijan, the presidency, will co-host a summit on methane and other non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gases with China and the United States.
3. Enhanced Transparency Framework (ETF)
Transparency is at the core of mutual trust in the UNFCCC negotiation process. Given the tight time frame for submission of biennial transparency reports (BTRs)(deadline of December 31, 2024), the President of COP29 has been actively working with the UNFCCC Secretariat to ensure that ETF reporting tools are ready on time and build confidence in the process among all parties. These BTRs are critical for tracking progress on commitments and assessing gaps and funding needs.
4. Mechanism operation of Article 6 of the Paris Agreement
Article 6 of the Paris Agreement recognizes that some parties have chosen to cooperate voluntarily in implementing their nationally determined contributions to increase their ambitions for climate mitigation and adaptation actions and promote sustainable development and environmental integrity. Article 6 is a core and necessary element of the Paris Agreement architecture, and its full operation will be an important step towards strengthening capital markets, creating viable economic models for climate activism and technologies, directing financial and technological resources (including to developing countries), and enabling Parties that need carbon markets and carbon trading to implement their climate plans. Although a lot of work has been done over the years, it is disappointing that this mechanism has not been fully operational in the past decade. COP29 prioritizes the implementation of Article 6, which is crucial to achieving the goals and ambitions of the Paris Agreement and the vision for the next decade.
5. Strengthen climate adaptation action
The results of last year's global stocktaking found that efforts to address climate change are still focused on mitigation, and adaptation work has not been implemented as planned to achieve long-term goals, and called on parties to take urgent, gradual, transformative and country-driven adaptation actions based on different national conditions, while recognizing the major challenges faced by developing country parties in accessing funding to implement their national climate adaptation plans and communications. Based on the results of the stocktaking, all parties need to formulate national climate adaptation plans, policies and implementation planning processes before 2025 so that countries can make progress in implementing these plans and policies by 2030. In addition, Parties recognized that adaptation funding must increase significantly, more than twice the amount agreed at COP26 at the time, to support the needs of developing countries to accelerate adaptation and the urgency of building resilience. The President of COP29 called on developed countries to at least double adaptation funding by 2025 and emphasized the need to balance funding for adaptation and mitigation.
In addition to the core negotiation agenda of each COP Conference, the presidency will also propose an action agenda led and initiated by the presidency based on the current situation. Azerbaijan will launch 14 action initiatives this year, some of which are not only open to parties, but also welcome the participation and participation of non-governmental organizations, charities, and the private sector, such as the Climate Finance Action Fund, Green Digital Initiative, etc.
There is a long way to go in addressing climate change. Technology, geopolitics and globalization have changed power relations, and the world is undergoing a period of turmoil and transformation, but we cannot sit idly by. International cooperation needs to be renewed and reformed to make it more networked, fair and inclusive. On the basis of adhering to the goals and principles of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Paris Agreement, the author calls on all parties and non-governmental stakeholders to further work together to design a roadmap for the next stage, and innovate bilateral and multilateral cooperation methods. While making new commitments, we must actively implement our respective past commitments and fulfill relevant obligations.
The author is Senior Stakeholder and Foreign Relations Advisor for COP28 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
