The manufacturing industry is going to sea and comprehensive green transformation... Photovoltaic has a good future

At the end of August, the two leading silicon wafer companiesLONGi lvneng(Stock code: 601012) andTCL Central(Stock buying:002129) Raise the price of silicon wafers and voluntarily give up low-price competition.

It is understood that since the beginning of this year, under the influence of mismatch between supply and demand and foreign trade barriers, the market sales prices of major products in all aspects of photovoltaic have dropped significantly. The domestic sales price of photovoltaic modules (including batteries) per watt hovers around 0.7 yuan.

Issues such as low-price competition, mismatch between supply and demand, and trade barriers once hindered the development of the photovoltaic industry. But on September 2LONGi lvnengAt the semi-annual performance briefing, Zhong Baoshen, chairman of the company, said that all links in the industrial chain are at the bottom of the cycle, and the upward trend of prices in the future is very obvious.

Lu Fang, secretary-general of the Photovoltaic Expert Committee of the China Green Supply Chain Alliance, is still full of confidence in the photovoltaic industry. In her view: "In the future, the international market will gradually grow, because it must be a trend for photovoltaics to become the world's leading energy source."

Transformation from products going abroad to manufacturing industrial chains going abroad

It is reported that in recent years, the United States has successively issued Articles 201, 301, and the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), and the European Union has issued a carbon border adjustment mechanism. These trade policies have improved by increasing tax burdens and promoting the localization of the photovoltaic industry. The entry threshold for the local photovoltaic market.

"Judging from the current situation, intensified competition and strengthening trade barriers are inevitable problems that this industry will face in the development of market-oriented competition." Ni Hanyi, general manager of global market of Zhengtai Xinneng Technology Co., Ltd., said in an interview with this reporter that there are many trade barriers in Europe and the United States, including restricting the proportion of imports from China and products produced by Chinese companies in other countries. This restriction encourages Chinese companies to choose to build factories locally in countries that have set up trade barriers, that is, transfer production lines to local areas and shift from product exports to manufacturing exports. This is also an important way for Chinese companies to deal with trade barriers.

According to May 3,Regarding some implementation rules of the IRA, although the United States has always opposed China's use of industrial subsidies to enhance product competitiveness, in fact, the United States is also using industrial subsidies to help its local photovoltaic companies develop. EU and CanadaThe same is true. Moreover, the restrictions imposed by these countries on subsidized companies have even been refined to the raw materials of photovoltaic modules.

For example, the United States requires locally manufactured products to undergo raw material penetration, that is, 40%-60% of the raw materials in a component must be produced locally before they can receive local U.S. taxes, investment subsidies, tax exemptions and other rewards. Whether or not to receive subsidies is a world of difference in competition in the U.S. market bidding.

"Inspired by this policy, Chinese companies will transfer manufacturing to the United States. However, because of the requirements for penetration of raw materials, the industrial chain needs to be grouped together to go out to sea. For example, a leading enterprise brings companies in its industrial chain to build factories in other countries, which has contributed to the situation in which my country's industrial chain is grouped together to sea." Lu Fang said that now all countries realize that photovoltaic manufacturing is a green highland, and all countries are laying out this track.

"My country's photovoltaic manufacturing industry has the conditions to go to sea." Song Dengyuan, chief technology officer of Yidongyi New Energy Technology Co., Ltd.(hereinafter referred to as Yidongyi New Energy), which is considering building factories in the United States, the European Union, and Japan, said: "In the past, foreign labor costs were relatively expensive, and Chinese companies had high costs to go abroad. But now it is different. Chinese photovoltaic companies are basically unmanned factories. For example, a new energy plant is all unmanned and automated factories, and labor costs are greatly reduced."

Our reporter learned that Chinese photovoltaic companies have a high degree of automation. Taking LONGi Green Energy's Lighthouse Factory in Jiaxing as an example, LONGi Green Energy has adopted new technologies such as industrial Internet, big data, and digital twins on a large scale, and successfully implemented more than 30 digital cases. Not only has labor been reduced, product quality has also been improved by 43%, production delivery cycles have been shortened by 84%, unit energy consumption of the base has been reduced by 20%, and a photovoltaic module has been rolled off the production line every 18 seconds.

In addition, the core competitiveness of China's photovoltaic industry is that it has a complete industrial chain, so the efficiency of photovoltaic going to sea is relatively high. According to the white paper "Developing the U.S. Photovoltaic Manufacturing Industry Chain" released by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), the cost of producing solar modules in the United States is about 30% to 40% higher than that in China, mainly due to the United States 'role in the photovoltaic industry. Related to the lack of certain links in the chain.

Industry insiders analyzed: "Our country already has a complete photovoltaic industry chain, and building factories in the United States can make up for the shortcomings of local industries. Therefore, trade barriers in various countries have blocked my country's export product channels, which does not mean that Chinese photovoltaic companies cannot enter other countries 'markets."

It is understood that in the "Belt and Road" countries, China has taken the step of going to the sea for photovoltaic manufacturing. Recently,TCL CentralJointly established a joint venture with a subsidiary of Saudi Arabia public investment fund PIF, and invested in the construction of a photovoltaic crystal wafer factory project with an annual output of 20GW in Saudi Arabia, with a total investment of US$2.08 billion, of which TCL Zhonghuan holds a 40% stake. According to media reports, the smooth implementation of the TCL Central project has set a benchmark for China's photovoltaic industry and even China's manufacturing industry to go overseas.

Comprehensive green transformation brings opportunities to the photovoltaic industry

According to SEIA statistics, the U.S. domestic component production capacity is planned to be 78.4 GW, of which 34GW has been completed and put into operation, and the production capacity under construction is 23.65 GW. The battery cell production capacity is planned to be 30.4GW, of which 7.8GW is under construction. It can be seen that although the United States has set up many trade barriers, its market demand is still there.

Just recently, in order to promote the import of crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells, the United States adjusted the tariff quota for solar cells from 5GW to 12.5GW although the solar cell tax rate is still high at 14.25%. In other words, the supply of Taieng Yang batteries in the U.S. market is insufficient.

It is foreseeable that in the external circulation, although my country's photovoltaic industry is temporarily affected by trade barriers, there are still great opportunities for the export of photovoltaic products by improving technology to reduce photovoltaic prices.

On the other hand, my country's unswerving promotion of energy transformation has also further opened up internal circulation for the photovoltaic industry.

Recently, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued the "Opinions on Accelerating the Comprehensive Green Transformation of Economic and Social Development", clarifying the overall requirements, key tasks and safeguard measures for accelerating the comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development.

"The country's comprehensive green transformation will not only further expand the domestic photovoltaic market, but also means that the entire photovoltaic industry will move from 'light green' to 'dark green'. The photovoltaic manufacturing industry itself is an industry that makes green. While we make green, we also need green manufacturing. From production and application to future decommissioning and recycling, the entire industrial chain must be greener, so that photovoltaic companies can still stay one step ahead in the face of trade barriers in the global competition, which is of great significance to the photovoltaic industry." Lu Fang told our reporter.

Our reporter noted that on August 29, the State Council Information Office issued another white paper "China's Energy Transformation", proposing to vigorously develop new energy productivity, accelerate technological innovation in energy transformation, and build a complete wind power and photovoltaic industry chain R & D design and integrated manufacturing system.

"Overall, the adjustment of the photovoltaic industry has begun. The technical strength and scale advantages of my country's photovoltaic industry are still solid. Under the guidance of policies and guidelines, it is expected that the current situation of the photovoltaic industry will gradually improve and radiate vitality in the new industry rising cycle." Chen Li, chief economist and director of the research institute of Chuancai Securities, told our reporter.

It is worth mentioning that this year, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued the "Implementation Plan on Establishing a Carbon Footprint Management System", requiring key products such as photovoltaics to issue carbon footprint accounting rules and standards. After my country's photovoltaic product carbon footprint accounting rules and standards, it will effectively respond to the green barriers set up by the EU in carbon reduction.

"At present, the databases used by other countries to calculate the carbon footprint of our products are based on international or other national databases. These databases use China's data around 2011, which is completely different from China's current energy structure. They use higher emission factors to calculate the carbon emissions of my national products are very high, which is unfair." Xu Hailiang, vice president of TÜV Nande Smart Energy, a third-party testing agency for foreign companies, told this reporter.

"Therefore, establishing rules and standards for carbon footprint accounting of photovoltaic products is an urgent matter. If it is delayed for a few more years, other countries may develop. The national business card that we have spent more than 20 years of hard work will soon be caught up." Song Dengyuan said.

Lu Fang said: "Our country's products are ready, and the companies are doing a good job, but some international scoring rules are unfavorable to my country's photovoltaic products, and we need to catch up. At present, relevant departments and associations are working hard on photovoltaic carbon footprint accounting rules and standards."

Jointly promote the healthy and orderly development of the photovoltaic industry

However, in the face of the current low-price competition and clearing difficulties, many photovoltaic companies and industry associations have called on relevant government departments to strengthen guidance to help the industry get out of the difficulties.

Ni Hanyi told our reporter: "I hope relevant national departments will take the lead in raising the bidding threshold. For example, when bidding, increase the requirements in terms of whether the product power is high, whether the technology used is advanced, and whether the environmental benefits are better."

Liu Yiyang, deputy secretary-general of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, also pointed out that the industry needs to reverse the practice of bidding based on price rather than quality. Central enterprises take the lead in making photovoltaic products with excellent quality and price stand out from the design of the bidding mechanism, which is an important starting point to reverse low-price competition in the industry. At the same time, local governments also need to act rationally when attracting investment. The development conditions of each region have their own merits, and they must adapt to local conditions. Promote the transformation of investment promotion in various places from competitive preferential policies to competitive business environments to avoid low-level duplication of construction and waste of resources.

In addition, the photovoltaic industry should also strengthen industry self-discipline. On July 30 this year, a meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee emphasized strengthening industry self-discipline, aiming to guide enterprises from blind expansion to high-quality development and gain competitive advantages through technological innovation and service optimization.

It is worth noting that at present, the photovoltaic industry has slowed down its planning for new production capacity, but instead seeks mergers and acquisitions to expand.

Among industrial investment, on August 5, East China Heavy Machinery Co., Ltd.(stock code: 002685) decided to terminate the investment in the construction of Bozhou's annual output of 10GW N-type high-efficiency solar cell production base project due to the serious decline in the overall price of the photovoltaic industry chain and continued to decline.

On the evening of August 13, Tongwei Co., Ltd.(stock code: 600438) announced that it planned to obtain no less than 51% equity of Jiangsu Runyang New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. through capital increase and acquisition of equity. The total transaction amount will not exceed 5 billion yuan.

"The termination of new project construction and mergers within the industry are expected to effectively alleviate the current situation of low-price competition and clearance difficulties in the industry." Zhao Xun, a new energy researcher at the Sichuan Finance Securities Research Institute, analyzed.

In Liu Yiyang's view, to promote the healthy and orderly development of the photovoltaic industry, we also need to fully encourage technological innovation and strengthen intellectual property protection. Strictly crack down on illegal activities that infringe intellectual property rights; at the same time, industry, academia and academia must collaborate in innovation, upstream and downstream must develop in a coordinated manner, and jointly build a new ecosystem for coordinated development of the industry. "The photovoltaic industry is an interconnected and interdependent industrial ecology. The development history of the photovoltaic industry for more than 20 years can be learned. Independent battles and excessive competition will only lead to alternate cycles of overheating and cooling. It is necessary to actively promote the joint construction of a photovoltaic manufacturing industry innovation center, open the national key laboratory of photovoltaic science and technology to full opening, and open cooperation with national and global scientific research institutions to coordinate the industrial chain. Advocate the coordinated development between leading industrial enterprises and industrial chain enterprises, advocate collaborative innovation and collaborative cooperation between the global photovoltaic industry, realize the two-way pursuit of 'new quality' and 'high-quality', and work together to build an industry with high-quality development of the photovoltaic industry. New ecology."

"Foreign trade barriers are not unique to recent years, they have existed long ago, but why these terms have been applied in the photovoltaic industry in the past two years is worth thinking about." Lu Fang reminded the photovoltaic industry and enterprises: "To participate in competition in the international market, enterprises must first know themselves and each other, and study the social responsibility, corporate responsibility, ESG and other relevant legal provisions proposed abroad to find our industrial advantages and solutions to win. way; Secondly, we must hold the universal mentality of a community with a shared future, truly integrate into the entire international competitive environment, and have a fair dialogue with them. Only then can we change the rules. Even in the future, we can guide and formulate rules. With such a large industrial scale as China, we cannot always be a follower of the rules."