How and who will leverage the 15 trillion yuan industry
Recently, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued the "Opinions on Accelerating the Comprehensive Green Transformation of Economic and Social Development"(hereinafter referred to as the "Opinions"). This is the first time that the central level has systematically deployed a comprehensive green transformation to accelerate economic and social development.
The "Opinions" propose that by 2030, the scale of the energy conservation and environmental protection industry will reach about 15 trillion yuan; the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption will increase to about 25%; the carbon emission intensity of the converted turnover per unit of operating transportation will decrease by about 9.5% compared with 2020; The annual utilization of bulk solid waste will reach about 4.5 billion tons.
The promulgation of the "Opinions" has also attracted great attention in the industry.
"The" Opinions "clarify the phased goals and completion time points for green transformation in major areas, making the tasks clearer and the paths clearer." Lin Boqiang, dean of the China Energy Policy Research Institute of Xiamen University, told reporters. He believes that the "Opinions" reflect the importance of comprehensive green transformation, and how to integrate policies with the market is a key task that attracts industry attention.
The scale of energy conservation and environmental protection industry will reach 15 trillion yuan in 2030
The person in charge of the National Development and Reform Commission recently stated that the overall requirements of the "Opinions" are to take carbon peak and carbon neutrality as the guide, coordinate the promotion of carbon reduction, pollution reduction, green expansion, and growth, deepen the reform of the ecological civilization system, and improve green and low-carbon development mechanisms, accelerate the comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development, form a spatial pattern, industrial structure, production methods, and lifestyle that conserve resources and protect the environment, comprehensively promote the construction of a beautiful China, and accelerate the modernization of harmonious coexistence between man and nature.
Lin Boqiang believes that the biggest feature of the "Opinions" is the word "comprehensive", which means that both the supply side and the demand side need to work hard at the same time. Energy conservation and emission reduction from the demand side can be carried out to better adjust the industrial structure, and use changes in consumer behavior to force production to transform into low-carbon, and the effect will be better.
"Before that, there were many voices surrounding the supply side, such as new energy vehicles. But when demand grows too fast, new energy will not be able to meet the growth of demand, and the proportion of fossil energy in actual use will increase, so the demand side should also do something." Lin Boqiang said.
It is worth noting that the "Opinions" put forward specific goals: by 2030, the scale of the energy conservation and environmental protection industry will reach about 15 trillion yuan.
"The goal of 15 trillion yuan is not a big problem. Because the potential of the energy conservation and environmental protection sector is very large, in fact, its current volume is not small." Lin Boqiang gave an optimistic answer. He believes that this goal not only affects the energy sector and energy manufacturing industry, but also has a positive impact on stimulating economic growth.
Wang Jialin, a senior researcher at Beijing Muchen Hengxin Consulting Co., Ltd., told reporters that this goal not only reflects the importance it attaches to green transformation, but also puts forward important requirements for the development of the industry.
Which sectors will continue to benefit
Shi Yingzhe, deputy director of the Institute of Securities and Futures at the Central University of Finance and Economics, told reporters that there are not only challenges but also huge opportunities behind the Opinions.
"For example,'By 2030, the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption will increase to about 25%.' This goal is a clear challenge to the current energy structure. Fossil energy such as coal plays a role in ensuring supply, while the incremental part requires new energy sources such as photovoltaics, wind power, and hydropower to play a role. This is a long-term positive for related industries." Shi Yingzhe said.
Wang Jialin expressed similar views. He believes that for traditional energy companies, six years can provide a buffer period for enterprise development and transformation, and formulate and implement transformation and development plans; for new energy companies, development has ushered in a new period of policy opportunities. Therefore, on the whole, this first systematic deployment of comprehensive green transformation at the central level is an important positive for the energy industry and will promote the energy industry to comprehensively accelerate the green transformation process.
Wang Jialin analyzed that in terms of industry structure, the structure of energy companies will be further adjusted, and the proportion of non-fossil energy companies and businesses will continue to increase; in terms of competition model, the traditional price-based competition model will rely more on technological innovation. Cost advantages brought about; in terms of cost investment, fossil energy companies will gradually transform into a science and technology investment model through investment models in mineral resources and fixed assets, and the proportion and scale of investment in science and technology R & D will increase rapidly.
He believes that in this context, there are four types of companies that will significantly benefit. The first is large-scale traditional fossil energy companies with good green transformation results. They have financial advantages and scientific and technological research and development capabilities. They can adapt to the policy requirements of transformation more quickly and maintain good operating and development benefits in the short to medium term; secondly, non-fossil energy companies will usher in development opportunities; once again, companies related to power system transformation; Finally, there are technology companies suitable for green energy transformation. Technological innovation is an important driving force in empowering and supporting green energy transformation and development. With increased investment and market attention, such companies will also usher in rapid development.
Lin Boqiang said that supply-side aspects such as energy conservation and emission reduction, comprehensive energy services, and environmental protection industries will also welcome benefits.
Looking forward to 2035, Shi Yingzhe predicts: "With the continuous development of technology, the scale of the energy conservation and environmental protection industry continues to increase. By 2035, people will be able to feel the changes brought about by the comprehensive green society transformation even in their daily lives."
Wang Jialin believes that by then, the development of the energy conservation and environmental protection industry will rely more on continuous technological innovation drive. Technological innovation will not only be limited to technological innovation itself, but will introduce more digital and intelligent capabilities.
"This is something that was not available in the development of the industry in the past. Especially after the deep integration of digital and intelligent capabilities into the industry, the development of the energy conservation and environmental protection industry will continue to strengthen the application of new Internet technologies. It can be predicted that with the enabling support of large models, artificial intelligence and other technologies, the development of the energy conservation and environmental protection industry will become smarter and faster., more precise." Wang Jialin said.
The person in charge of the National Development and Reform Commission said that since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, my country has made historic achievements in green and low-carbon development. The pace of green energy transformation is accelerating, environmental quality continues to improve, the sky is bluer, the mountains are greener, and the water is clearer. At the same time, my country's green transformation still faces many difficulties and challenges. The national conditions of coal energy structure, industrial structure, and tight environmental constraints have not changed. Fossil energy and traditional industries still account for a high proportion, and the foundation for stable and improved ecological and environmental quality is not yet solid. In addition, the global green transformation process is facing twists and turns, the politicization of environmental and climate issues is increasing, and green trade barriers are escalating.
Lin Boqiang believes that the challenges are mainly concentrated on the demand side. He said: "Demand is relatively scattered. If consumers are involved, the dispersion will become more prominent. It is recommended to deepen reforms in personnel, markets, prices and other aspects to promote energy conservation and emission reduction on the demand side, and ultimately force the production side."
Facing the future, Wang Jialin believes that the development of energy conservation and environmental protection industries still needs more fiscal, taxation and financial policy support. He suggested that the central bank introduce special support tools to cultivate enterprises with innovative capabilities and leading technologies through fiscal, taxation and financial policy support to achieve iterative development of the industry.
