Why is coal-fired power generation "growing in reverse"?

"The core of building a new power system is to revolutionize the power supply structure. At the root, it is necessary to replace traditional fossil energy with new energy, and of course, this is a gradual process. Lin Weibin, director of the Energy Policy Research Office of the China Energy Research Society, answered reporters' questions.

On January 24 this year, at the press conference of the State Council Information Office, Li Bing, deputy secretary-general and spokesperson of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, provided a set of data: in 2023, coal-fired power units will maintain safe and efficient operation, with a total of 5.35 trillion kilowatt hours of electricity generated throughout the year, accounting for 52% of the country's installed capacity, contributing 63% of the country's power generation. In 2022, the share of coal-fired power generation just fell from 60.1% in 2021 to 58.4%. In 2023, there will be a "rising" trend in coal-fired power generation.

At the "New Power System Salon" hosted by the China Energy Research Society and undertaken by the Energy Policy Research Office of the China Energy Research Society, experts from the China Electricity Council and the China Renewable Energy Power Generation Grid Integration Committee spoke freely on the theme of "Innovating Market Mechanisms to Promote the Transformation and Development of Coal Power".

Why is coal power rising instead of falling?

For a long time, some people have developed a stereotype about China's energy development, that is, in China's "dual carbon" process, the proportion of coal-fired power capacity will gradually decrease, and even carbon neutrality can only be achieved if the absolute number of coal-fired power capacity falls.

But this is a misunderstanding. In fact, it is not only a process for new energy to replace traditional fossil energy, but also with the development of new energy at this stage, coal power will also grow accordingly.

Previously, Zhao Fengyun, chairman of the Integrated Smart Energy Committee of the China Electric Power Technology Market Association, explained why coal power will accompany the growth of new energy: "New energy is volatile, and we must have a hedging adjustment with volatility, otherwise it will be unstable." Volatility needs stability hedging, and randomness and the dislocation of power generation and electricity demand need to be reversed or changed in electricity consumption behavior, either energy storage, or coal power flexibility transformation, and other ways, all of which must be balanced. ”

In order to solve the problem of the volatility of new energy, it is required to bundle "wind, solar and fire" to send electricity outside to ensure that the power transmission is smoother, more controllable, safer, and better economical. The construction of coal-fired power plants for new energy power generation has become a must.

In recent years, China's new energy power generation has maintained a sustained growth trend, especially in 2023, ushering in a wave of explosive growth. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2023, clean energy such as hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, and solar power generation will reach 3,190.6 billion kWh, an increase of 7.8% over the previous year.

As a new energy supporting coal power to maintain stability, it is natural that the tide will also rise.

To a certain extent, the increase in new energy sources such as wind power and solar power generation in the current power generation increment mainly replaces the reduction of hydropower, and the increase in coal power still maintains a relatively large share (such as 2017, 2018, 2021, and 2023). According to data from the China Electricity Council, since 2013, the proportion of coal-fired power generation in China has shown a downward trend as a whole, with significant year-on-year fluctuations, but it is still the main source of power generation.

"In the gradual process of revolutionary changes in the power supply structure, coal power will also play an important role in ensuring the security of power supply in the future energy system and power system. Lin Weibin said, "At this year's National People's Congress and the National People's Congress, the State Council's government work report particularly emphasized the role of coal and coal power as a backstop. ”

Based on the supporting and regulating role of coal power as the "ballast stone" in China's power system and the basic national conditions of China's coal-based power, coal power will continue to play an important role in a certain period of time.

"So we can't directly extend the changes in installed capacity to electricity and emissions. "But in the long run, there is no doubt that coal power will gradually reduce in terms of installed capacity, absolute amount of power generation, and structural proportion, and it will be transformed to give way to new energy." In the transition stage, how to develop and transform coal power is worth studying. ”

The "Quadruple Relationship" between Coal Power and New Energy

China accounts for more than half of the world's coal consumption, more than half of which is used to generate electricity. Therefore, how to develop and transform China's coal power has attracted global attention. Yin Ming believes that the "new" coal withdrawal is a challenging and innovative process, which cannot be achieved overnight, and requires dialectical thinking and systematic thinking, and needs to continuously deepen the understanding of the relationship between coal power and new energy. Yin Ming argues that there is a "fourfold relationship" between coal power and new energy sources in China.

One is the substitution relationship. In terms of electricity market space, new energy power generation has a relatively obvious substitution relationship with coal power generation. This is also the relationship that the industry is most concerned about.

The second is complementarity. "This relationship cannot be ignored. Yin Ming proposed that in terms of development mode, new energy power generation can take into account both base and distributed development, while coal power is suitable for centralized development, and the two are complementary. In terms of spatiotemporal physical characteristics, the intermittency, volatility and randomness of new energy power generation and the reliability, stability and controllability of coal power are also complementary. Yin Ming believes that this complementary relationship is an important basis for promoting the transformation of coal power to regulated power sources and the implementation of coal power and new energy joint ventures.

The third is the relationship between mutual images. In the future, new energy will be observable, measurable, adjustable, and controllable, and coal power will also achieve a clean and low-carbon transformation of externalities and become cleaner and cleaner. The two are not simply antagonistic relationships, but "two-way running", and finally the two sides meet under the "double carbon" goal.

Fourth, the inheritance relationship. "Our power system and energy system are a huge asset system, market system, governance system, technical system, and regulatory system accumulated over many years. All of this is based on coal and coal-fired power. Yin Ming pointed out that the development foundation of new energy cannot be completely separated from coal power.

"In recent years, the development of new energy sources such as photovoltaic and wind power has gradually matured. The foundation for the rapid development of new energy is inseparable from the basic system of coal power. Therefore, it does not mean that the existing power system should be torn down and rebuilt, and coal power should be completely abandoned, which cannot be done and is not scientific. When we develop new energy, we still have to consider from a realistic point of view. Yin Ming pointed out that coal power and new energy need to develop in tandem, and in the coordinated development of coal to achieve "new" advance, to achieve the transformation of coal power to basic guarantee and system regulation power supply. This is the only way for China to build a new power system and ensure a safe and stable supply of energy.

What is the future of coal power?

In 2023, China's coal consumption will account for 55.3% of total energy consumption, and coal is still the basic energy source to ensure energy supply.

"A very important issue in order to successfully realize the scientific transformation and development of coal power is the optimal allocation of coal power resources, which should not only realize the role of guarantee, but also support flexibility, and ensure the economy of energy consumption. Lin Weibin said that under the current capacity price mechanism of coal power, how to further carry out corresponding market mechanism innovation, promote the transformation and development of coal power, optimize the allocation of coal power resources, and better support the construction of new power systems, this is an important issue.

Lin Weibin told reporters that for the new power system and to promote the transformation and development of coal power, it is necessary to explore an effective mechanism for policy and market synergy, focus on the dynamic adjustment and optimization of the mechanism, fully consider China's reality, and explore the coal power transformation and development mechanism that ensures the organic unity of reliability, flexibility and economy under the Chinese energy governance system.

Wen Shu, member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), Secretary of the Party Leadership Group and Chairman of China Huaneng Group Co., Ltd., suggested at the just-concluded National People's Congress and the National People's Congress that scientific and technological innovation should be further strengthened, the potential of coal power to reduce pollution and carbon emissions should be tapped, and the green and low-carbon transformation of energy and power and the economy and society should be promoted. He suggested that scientific and technological innovation should be used to promote clean and efficient development, and the development orientation and industrial development direction of coal power should be clarified. On the basis of the gradual transformation from basic guarantee power supply to system regulation power supply, we will promote the research and development of efficient and flexible coal-fired power technology, increase the flexibility transformation of coal-fired power units, and adapt to the needs of new power system construction. Improve the CCUS (carbon dioxide capture and utilization) technology system, deploy research and pilot projects on "biomass + CCUS" blending with coal-fired power, promote zero-carbon and carbon-negative development of the energy system, and promote "coal-power+" coupled power generation.

At present, there is still a lot of room for coal power to reduce pollution and carbon emissions. On December 13, 2023, the performance test of the second phase of Shenergy Anhui Pingshan Power Plant was successfully completed, and the coal consumption of the power supply unit under rated working conditions was 249.31 g/kWh, reaching the expected target of the design value not higher than 251 g/kWh, setting a new world record. Based on the annual power generation capacity of 7 billion kilowatt hours, this project can save about 105,000 tons of standard coal and reduce carbon dioxide emissions by about 260,000 tons a year compared with the most advanced two reheat million units built in the same period.

Dong Suocheng, a second-level researcher at the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, gave a set of data: In recent years, China's standard coal consumption per kilowatt-hour of thermal power generation has continued to decline, with a decrease of 0.6% over the previous year in 2020, 0.5% in 2021, and 0.2% in 2022. China's clean and efficient coal-fired power generation technology is at the world's leading level, accounting for 46.7% of the country's installed capacity and about 60% of power generation in 2021.

According to Wang Zhaohua, dean of the School of Economics of Beijing Institute of Technology, in terms of coal-fired power generation, China's clean and efficient use of coal is at the forefront of the world, and the total emissions of sulfur dioxide, soot and nitrogen oxides have been reduced to about 6% at the peak, and the emission intensity is the lowest value of coal-fired power in various countries.

Although the clean and low-carbon transformation and development of coal-fired power has potential and strength, it does not mean that it can be achieved overnight. Huang Shaozhong, director of the dual-carbon industry cooperation branch of the China Energy Research Society, said: "To promote the transformation and development of coal power, it is necessary to take into account the overall situation, implement comprehensive policies, and give full play to the role of market mechanisms on the basis of policy. "It is necessary to focus on the following aspects: first, to improve the planning and layout of coal power, play a leading and guiding role, and clarify the goals, paths and steps of the transformation and development of coal power under the dual carbon goal and the new power system; The coordinated development of the green certificate market and the carbon market, the fifth is to promote the joint development of coal enterprises and power generation enterprises in various forms, and the sixth is to promote the integrated development of coal power and new energy.