The average temperature has risen by more than 1.6℃, and global temperatures have reached records in the past 12 months!
Not surprisingly, in the past June, the global average temperature once again broke the historical record.
According to data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), the global average surface temperature in June this year was 16.66℃, 0.14℃ higher than the same period in 2023.
High temperature warnings continue to sound. Will this year become the hottest year in history?
(1)
Statistics show that global temperatures have broken historical records for thirteen consecutive months. Starting from June 2023, global temperatures in each month have broken previous records, and the past 13 months have been the warmest period since meteorological observations began.
According to ERA5 reanalysis data, the global average temperature in the past 12 months (July 2023 to June 2024) is 0.76℃ higher than the average temperature from 1991 to 2020 and 1.64℃ higher than the pre-industrialization average temperature from 1850 to 1900. Many institutions around the world are monitoring global temperatures, and the conclusion is very clear: the global average temperature has risen by more than 1.6℃ in the past 12 months.
This temperature became the highest since human civilization and exceeded the Holocene warm period (9500 to 5500 years ago). Considering that the earth is currently in the interglacial period, which was a long ice age before it, it may be necessary to go back to the last interglacial period (Em interglacial period), that is, it is possible to find temperatures similar to the present one at least 110,000 years ago, and at that time our Homo sapiens ancestors had just left Africa.
(2)
The record global temperatures in the past 12 months are an inevitable result of global warming.
Over the past 100 years, human activities have burned large amounts of coal, oil and natural gas, emitting large amounts of greenhouse gases. Due to human large-scale transformation of the land surface, the greenhouse effect has been enhanced and global temperatures have increased.
In 2023, global carbon dioxide emissions hit a record high of 37.4 billion tons. If methane, nitrous oxide and land use changes are also taken into account, greenhouse gases emitted by human activities will reach more than 55 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2023. This caused the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to reach more than 150% of that before the Industrial Revolution (1750), the concentration of methane to more than 264%, and the concentration of nitrous oxide to more than 124%.
Over the past 10 years, global carbon dioxide concentrations have increased by an average of 2.46 ppm per year (ppm stands for "one part per million"), a rate that is more than hundreds of times the fastest rate of change in the past million years, putting us in an "unprecedented" global warming.
Recall that in 2015, leaders of many countries around the world jointly signed the Paris Agreement, hoping that through the joint efforts of everyone, global warming will be controlled to no more than 2 degrees Celsius at the end of the 21st century, and efforts will be made to limit the temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius. But in the past 12 months, we have jointly experienced a world warming by more than 1.6 ° C, as well as secondary hazards caused by heat waves, heavy rains, floods, mountain fires, etc.
(3)
This global high temperature is also inseparable from the El Niño event of the past year.
The El Niño event refers to the abnormal increase in sea water temperature in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Generally, the high sea temperature area extends westward from the coast of South America to the west of the date line, spanning about 1/3 of the earth's radius. Such a large-scale sea temperature anomaly has an impact on global temperatures.
A moderate-intensity El Niño event can cause the global average temperature to rise by about 0.2 ° C, while the super El Niño events that occurred in 1997/1998 and 2015/2016 increased the global average temperature by about 0.3 ° C-0.5 ° C. The 2023 El Niño event starts in May 2023 and peaks in December 2023. This is a moderate-intensity El Niño event. Therefore, even if the impact of the event (about 0.2℃) is deducted, the global warming in the past 12 months has exceeded 1.4℃.
(4)
In terms of speed, global warming is currently accelerating. During the period from 1970 to 2010, the global temperature warming rate was approximately 0.18 ° C per decade, and after 2010, the global warming rate reached more than 0.32 ° C per decade.
This is because global greenhouse gas emissions continue to soar and continue to break through historical extremes. Although there was a temporary decline in greenhouse gas emissions during the global COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, emissions quickly soared to new highs after the epidemic ended.
The acceleration of warming may also be related to the mitigation of pollution caused by global industrial upgrading. When the atmosphere is filled with small particles of pollutants (aerosols), the sky appears gray, which to a certain extent reduces the solar radiation reaching the earth's surface; As air pollution eases, the air becomes more transparent, which helps to intensify warming. Or to put it another way, air pollution has a certain inhibitory effect on global warming. As air pollution eases, global warming caused by soaring carbon dioxide fully reveals its true colors.
(5)
According to predictions by the World Meteorological Organization and various research institutions, this El Niño event has ended between April and May 2024. Recently, the sea temperature in the equatorial, Middle and Pacific has remained neutral, and it is likely to develop into a La Niña event by the end of the year.
La Niña phenomenon is almost completely opposite to El Niño phenomenon. At that time, the equatorial, Middle and Pacific will have low sea temperature characteristics, which will inhibit global warming to a certain extent.
However, as mentioned earlier, the global temperature fluctuation caused by a neutral El Niño and La Niña phenomenon is about 0.2℃. Considering that the global average temperature increase in the first half of 2024 has exceeded 1.6℃, even if the temperature "brakes" occurs at the end of the year, On average, the annual temperature increase is likely to exceed 1.5℃. If that is the case, 2024 will surpass 2023 and become the warmest year on record.
The good news is that with the formation of the La Niña event, global temperatures may fall back in 2025, at least lower than in 2024. The bad news is that global warming is still continuing. Even if global temperatures fall by 0.2 degrees Celsius, at the current warming rate, global warming will compensate for this fall in 5 to 6 years, making global temperatures exceed 2023 and 2024. The high point of the year will be the beginning of a 2030s with more severe climate disasters.
(six)
More than 2300 years ago, Bian Que, a famous doctor, met Duke Huan of Cai and said to Duke Huan of Cai: "Your disease lies in the skin, and if you don't treat it, it will become deeper.""Your disease lies in the skin, and if you don't treat it, it will become deeper.""Your disease lies in the stomach and intestines. If you don't treat it, it will become deeper." Duke Huan of Cai disagreed. After more than a month, Duke Huan of Cai suffered physical pain and eventually died.
In 1988, famous meteorologist James Hansen called for measures to address global warming and curb global warming at a U.S. Congressional hearing. At that time, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was only about 350ppm. In May 2024, the carbon dioxide concentration at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii exceeded 425ppm.
In the past 800,000 years of the earth's history, such a huge increase took nearly 10,000 years, corresponding to the earth's dramatic climate change from glacial to interglacial, but now it only takes 36 years.
The governance window continues to shrink and climate disasters are likely to intensify. Is mankind ready?
