Global warming continues, when will the earth's ecosystem reach a critical point?

In recent years, the impact of global warming has become increasingly significant, touching many aspects of the earth's ecosystem. Corals bleach and die, Arctic permafrost melts, Antarctic sea ice melts... These changes often evolve gradually and are difficult to attract enough attention.

But there are signs that the earth's ecosystem is moving towards a critical point. If effective measures are not taken in a timely manner, there will be catastrophic impacts, and the damage to the earth's ecosystem will be irreversible.

Mass coral deaths

As climate warming causes ocean temperatures to rise, global coral reef bleaching has become more frequent and severe.

Agencies such as the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have predicted that if global temperatures rise by 1.5 degrees Celsius compared with the pre-industrial (1850 - 1900) average, 70% to 90% of the world's coral reefs will die in the next few decades. If you increase it by 2 degrees Celsius, this figure will jump to more than 99%.

The European Union's climate monitoring agency Copernicus Climate Change Service issued a communiqué last month saying that as of June this year, the global average temperature has been 1.5 degrees Celsius higher than before industrialization for 12 consecutive months.

This means that the process of global coral deaths may have begun, which will have widespread impacts. Coral reefs play an important role in the marine ecosystem and are closely related to the development of fisheries and tourism.

Arctic frozen soil melts

In cold climates such as the Arctic, organic matter frozen by frozen soil stores large amounts of carbon. As the frozen soil melts, these organisms begin to decompose, releasing greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane.

Previous studies have shown that the Arctic is warming at about twice that of other parts of the world, and a large area of frozen soil in the region has begun to melt.

Other studies have claimed that for every 1 degree Celsius increase in global temperature, nearly 4 million square kilometers of frozen soil may melt.

In the "Paris Initiative" launched by France in cooperation with the World Meteorological Organization and UNESCO, warnings were also issued on the scale and speed of melting of ice, snow and permafrost and the risk of exceeding critical points. About 200,000 glaciers in Europe, Africa, Oceania, Asia and the Americas have experienced almost irreversible retreat. It is expected that by 2100, at least half of the glaciers will disappear.

The Greenland ice sheet melts

With global warming, the ice sheet covering Greenland, the world's largest island, has melted extensively in recent years, and the rate of melting has accelerated after 2000.

Some studies have proposed that how much carbon dioxide human activities will emit in the next few decades will affect the fate of the Greenland ice sheet within 10,000 years.

If cumulative carbon emissions do not exceed 1 trillion tons, the Greenland ice sheet will grow slowly after the first 1000 years of melting.

If the cumulative carbon emissions since the industrial era reach 1 trillion tons, the ice sheet will continue to melt for a long time, causing sea level to rise by about 1.8 meters; after reaching 2.5 trillion tons, the Greenland ice sheet may disappear within 10,000 years, causing sea level to rise by about 6.9 meters.

According to data released by the non-governmental organization "Global Carbon Initiative", cumulative carbon emissions from 1850 to 2022 will be approximately 477 billion tons, and global carbon emissions in 2022 will be approximately 12 billion tons. If carbon emissions remain at current levels, they will reach the critical point of 1 trillion tons in less than 50 years.

Antarctic sea ice melts

In recent years, many meteorological agencies have observed many extreme high temperatures in the Antarctic region, and the amount of melt water on the Antarctic ice shelf is much higher than previous forecasts. Some studies say that the melting of the Western Antarctic ice shelf will be "inevitable" in the future and may eventually lead to the collapse of the Western Antarctic ice sheet.

Other studies have shown that if global carbon emissions remain at current levels, the melting of the Antarctic ice sheet will cause the Antarctic deep-sea circulation to slow down by 40% in 30 years and increase the deep-sea temperature, which will have a profound impact on the marine ecosystem and the global climate.

In addition, the Antarctic sea ice area has hit a record low in recent years, bringing "disaster" to the emperor penguin chicks. This large-scale death of emperor penguin chicks is the first time on record. If global warming continues to deteriorate, more than 90% of the emperor penguin community will be nearly extinct by the end of this century.

Amazon rainforest degradation

The Amazon rainforest, known as the "lungs of the earth", is also a very climate-sensitive system.

As wildfires and droughts become more frequent in the context of global warming, the Amazon rainforest suffered a drought rare in a century last year. The local "pink dolphins" and a variety of fish died. Falling water levels not only made some lakes in the Amazon Basin almost dry up, but also put some local villages at risk of becoming "islands".

Some studies estimate that by 2050, as many as half of the Amazon rainforest may be at risk of degradation.

Overall, these data reflect the severe challenges facing the global environment in the context of global warming and highlight the importance of taking rapid action to mitigate climate warming.