Domestic carbon trading volume and price increased in September

Sinochem New Network News was stimulated by the first round of expansion and other positive incentives, the national carbon market achieved an increase in volume in September. In September, the total transaction volume of the national carbon market was 7.8356 million tons, an increase of 33.67% from August; the total transaction volume was 7.576 billion yuan, an increase of 49.90% from August.

In terms of specific prices, the closing price of the national carbon emission quota (CEA) fluctuated upward in September, from 92.42 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to breaking through the 100-yuan mark again at the end of the month, with a single-day increase or decrease of more than 5%; the average daily closing price was 93.66 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.1% compared with the average daily closing price of 90.84 yuan/ton in August. In terms of transaction volume, about five-sixths of the trading days of CEA in September were more than 100,000 tons, with a maximum of nearly 930,000 tons; the average daily transaction volume was 359,600 tons, a significant increase of nearly 35% from the 266,500 tons in August., the highest average daily transaction volume this year.

The industry generally believes that this increase in carbon prices is mainly affected by policies. According to the latest policy, the national carbon market performance schedule has changed from one performance every two years to one performance every year, which has increased the market demand for carbon quotas and thus pushed high carbon prices. In addition, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment recently issued a work plan to actively and steadily promote the construction of national carbon emissions trading markets in cement, steel, electrolytic aluminum and other industries. The market expects that the coverage of the carbon market will be further expanded, which will help stimulate the vitality and trading volume of the carbon trading market.

Industry researcher Tao Ye believes that in the long run, domestic carbon prices will stabilize and rise. First, after the expansion of the carbon market, about 1500 new companies will participate, covering about 3 billion tons of new emissions, which is expected to increase trading volume and push prices up; secondly, supply and demand in the certified voluntary emission reduction (CCER) market in China is tighter, which will be mutually beneficial to the trend of carbon prices; thirdly, the "carbon border adjustment mechanism" in the European Union and other places has been officially put into operation, and the huge carbon price difference at home and abroad has become the driving force for further increases in domestic carbon prices.

According to the Center for Sustainable Development Research at Fudan University, the CEA and CCER price indices are expected to rise sharply in October. Specifically, the CEA buying price in October is expected to be 94.51 yuan/ton, and the selling price is expected to be 102.41 yuan/ton; the buying price index is expected to increase by 3.55%, and the selling price index is expected to increase by 6.03%. At the same time, the CCER buying price in October is expected to be 94.51 yuan/ton, and the selling price is expected to be 101.02 yuan/ton; the buying price index is expected to increase by 9.06%, and the selling price index is expected to increase by 8.50%.