Authoritative interpretation! What information does the 2024 China Lancet Countdown Report convey
"The shift from health damage to climate change to a call for the global system to comprehensively respond to challenges is what has happened in the global Lancet countdown report over the years." Cai Wenjia, professor of the Department of Earth System Science at Tsinghua University and director of the Lancet Countdown Asia Center, said. On November 5, the "2024 Lancet Countdown to Population Health and Climate Change China Report"(hereinafter referred to as the "2024 China Report") was released. Cai Wenjia introduced the latest findings of the global Lancet Countdown Report and its content related to Asia, and focused on the 2024 China Report, explaining in detail the challenges and opportunities faced by China as it faces the health impacts of climate change.
The absolute value of the health impact of climate change on Asia is higher than that of other continents. The impact of compound extreme events on health is characterized by 1+ 12."Climate anxiety" has not increased public attention... What key messages does the 2024 China report convey?
Asia is affected by climate change health impacts in absolute terms than other continents
Through rigorous methods and detailed data, scientists around the world are gradually revealing the hidden relationship between climate change and climate action's impact on people's health.
According to reports, the core views of the "2024 Lancet Global Report on Population Health and Climate Change Countdown"(hereinafter referred to as the "2024 Global Report") include five major aspects. First, climate change has brought record-breaking health costs. Second, greenhouse gas emissions are getting worse and worse. Third, large amounts of global funds are still flowing to the fossil fuel industry. Fourth, climate change is breaking dangerous new records, but government and media attention to health and climate change is declining. Fifth, the direction of transition will determine global health, but many countries are not yet ready to transition to a healthy, net-zero emission future.
It is worth noting that the 2024 global report adds new indicators of increased nighttime temperature and lost sleep time. "In 2023, due to exposure to high temperatures, people's sleep loss will be about 6% higher than during the period from 1986 to 2005, reaching the highest level in history." Cai Wenjia added: "Another indicator is global climate change and health education and training. The lower the proportion of low-and middle-income countries, and the impact on these regions is often more serious, and scientific data is needed to support the formulation of response strategies."
From the 2024 global report to further focus on Asia, we can find that the absolute health impacts of climate change on Asia are often higher than other continents. "There are both climate reasons and Asian population and structure issues behind this." Cai Wenjia explained: "The number of days exposed to heat waves for infants under 1 years old and people over 65 years old in Asia accounts for approximately 50%-60% of the world's total, which is proportional to the population of Asia. Currently, 80% of Asian countries 'meteorological departments provide climate services and data services to health departments, but less than 35% of countries provide long-term climate change prediction data and customized products for industry impacts."
The impact of compound extreme events on health shows a 1+1 2 characteristic
In recent years, China has been experiencing increasingly frequent extreme weather events. In 2020, the Northeast region was hit by three typhoons in half a month, and the meteorological disasters raging in the south began to move northward. In 2021, Henan's extremely heavy rain broke the mainland's hourly rainfall record. In 2022, the country will be roasted at high temperatures, and heatstroke will become a hot topic in the media. In 2023, Typhoon Dusurui caused rare heavy rains and floods in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. Yunnan, located in the southwest, also suffered the strongest continuous winter and spring drought, causing forest fires.
"Under the trend of climate change, the earth has become more and more 'manic, extreme and changeable,' making rare things more common, and making common things break new records repeatedly." Cai Wenjia said: "By comparing the temperatures from 1971 to 2000, we can find that the global average summer temperature rise in the past 10 years has increased by 0.6 degrees. It is the global temperature rise of 0.6 degrees that has brought about a multiple increase in the frequency of extreme weather in my country. Every 0.1 degree temperature rise will bring huge differences in the climate and environment."
Through research on climate change phenomena and data in my country, the 2024 China report gives five major conclusions: First, the health threat of climate change is close at hand, and the climate crisis is also a health crisis. Second, climate health risks in recent years are only a microcosm of more serious dangers in the future. Third, climate change is still damaging our ability to adapt and reduce emissions, further increasing health threats. Fourth, climate action is a good medicine to alleviate the health crisis and improve the establishment of equity. Fifth, China's response has made progress, and more action opportunities are emerging.
Not only that, the 2024 China report continues to be iteratively optimized, introducing 3 new indicators in addition to the 16 indicators reported globally, and proposing two new perspectives, namely, prediction of the health impacts of climate change and exposure to compound disasters. The focus is on the impact of compound disasters, and events such as compound high temperature and ozone, and compound dry heat (hot during the day and at night) that are more common in recent years and have significant health impacts are selected for sorting and research.
The 2024 China report shows that in 2022, the number of people exposed to compound dry heat events in China exceeded 900 million. The total population exposure has increased by more than 30 times compared with the average from 1986 to 2005. The regions with rapid increase are mainly in southern China. Another compound event is high temperature and ozone. High temperature often occurs at the same time as high concentrations of ozone and can adversely affect the cardiovascular and respiratory system of the human body, increasing the risk of premature death. In 2023, the country's per capita compound exposure days to high temperature and ozone will be 6 to 7 days, more than twice the average from 1986 to 2005. The fast-growing regions are mainly concentrated in the north.
"The research results of relevant domestic teams on the health effects of compound heat events show that the risk of death caused by this weather has more than tripled, and it also proves that the impact of compound extreme events on health is 1+ 12." Cai Wenjia explained.
"Climate anxiety" has not brought about increased public attention
In terms of innovation and breakthroughs, the 2024 China report included the carbon emission indicators of the health system for the first time. "It is foreseeable that if the risks to climate health continue to increase in the future, greater demand for medical services will be created, and the new demand will further increase carbon emissions. Therefore, the health department needs to pay attention to its own carbon emissions and reduce the negative impact on the climate and environment." Cai Wenjia said.
In response to climate change, the public is a part that cannot be ignored. However, the 2024 China report shows that "climate anxiety" has not brought about increased public attention. "We tracked government websites and mainstream social media and found that personal public searches on topics such as climate change have dropped after peaking in 2022." Cai Wenjia said.
Climate action is a good medicine to alleviate health crises and improve health equity. This can be seen from the step-by-step implementation of China's clean heating policy. Starting from 2017, my country has made clean heating a priority. As of 2021, more than 26 million rural households in my country have participated in the clean energy replacement plan. On the premise of increasing per capita energy consumption by 75%, coal use has been achieved. The proportion dropped by 65%. While reducing the use of coal-fired bulk coal by 150 million tons, it has also achieved a reduction of pm2.5 by more than 1/3.
"The elderly, women and children will benefit the most from the significant improvement in air quality brought about by clean heating." Cai Wenjia explained: "Because they usually stay indoors longer. Therefore, climate action can not only reduce health risks, but also promote health equity between regions, urban and rural areas, and between genders."
At present, China's health risk response system is gradually taking shape. "We suggest that, next, we should speed up the establishment of a national-level ministerial coordination mechanism to deal with climate change health risks. At the local level, it is necessary to strengthen the coordination and integration of different adaptation pilots and accelerate the implementation of total carbon emission control at the regional level. Promote investment and financing in the field of climate health, reduce fossil fuel subsidies, and increase financial support for mitigation and adaptation technologies. Develop low-carbon and resilient medical systems. At the same time, it provides refined and diversified health risk early warning services that vary by person, place, and disease." Cai Wenjia said.
