Du Xiangwan, academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and deputy director of the National Energy Advisory Expert Committee: Coordinate the development of new energy and national energy security

On February 29, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee conducted the twelfth collective study on new energy technology and China's energy security. Energy security is related to the overall economic and social development. Actively developing clean energy and promoting green and low-carbon economic and social transformation have become the general consensus of the international community to respond to global climate change.

Reporter:First of all, what are the challenges facing China's energy transition under the "dual carbon" goal?

Du Xiangwan:The proposal of the "dual carbon" goal declares China's determination and ambition for green and low-carbon transformation. Optimizing the energy structure is a basic path to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, relative to oil and gas, China's coal reserves are richer, the coal reserve-production ratio is 40 years, the oil storage-production ratio is 18 years, and the natural gas storage-production ratio is 30 years. While making good use of coal, we should also pay attention to the reserve-production ratio. What does a reserve-to-production ratio of 40 years mean? That is, by 2060, even if there is no requirement for carbon neutrality, the mineable reserves of coal will be about the same. Under the inherent conditions of rich coal, lack of oil and low gas, it is necessary to have a new understanding of China's energy resource endowment, China has abundant renewable energy, and the renewable energy that has been developed is less than one-tenth of the technically exploitable resources, and the abundant renewable energy resources constitute a solid foundation for China's energy transformation. The "dual carbon" goal, it is to guide a direction, you can say that it is a challenge, but it is also an opportunity. It is with the development of China's economy and society, energy must be guaranteed, but to move towards green and low-carbon, everyone's quality of life will be improved.

Reporter:General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out that "green transformation is a process, not an overnight thing. It is necessary to establish first and then break, but not to break before it is established." How do you scientifically understand "first establish and then break"?

Du Xiangwan:In the past, it was believed that the energy system should be safe, reliable, economically viable, and green and low-carbon, and it was almost impossible to have all three at the same time, so it was often referred to as the "impossible triangle". The new energy system called for carbon peak and carbon neutrality must gradually meet these three goals and make it a "possible triangle", and all three are indispensable. On the premise of ensuring the energy security needed for economic and social development, the energy transition will be realized. The energy transition is an additive, not a subtraction. At present, fossil energy accounts for more than 80% of China's energy structure, and coal alone accounts for 56%. We need to pay attention to the economical, efficient and clean use of coal, and actively develop renewable energy, so that we can first establish and gradually reduce coal when it is sufficient. The new house was not built and the old house was not moved. At this stage, energy security must be ensured by establishing first and then breaking down, and gradually and steadily shifting from coal-based to renewable energy is a long-term energy security policy and the only way to achieve carbon neutrality. I don't think the coal-dominated situation will change in the short term, and this change will only be gradual. For a long time, our dependence on foreign oil and gas has been very high, and it is unlikely that we will import more oil and gas. The faster the development of renewable energy, the more coal can be gradually reduced, but not as fast as possible. Because economic and social development needs energy, it is necessary to ensure the needs of economic and social development first. Under this premise, this is what it means to gradually establish first and then break.

Reporter:Factors such as the promotion of the "dual carbon" goal and the technological innovation brought about by the fourth industrial revolution have given the new energy system distinctive characteristics of the times. The construction of a new energy system should not only meet the requirements of low-carbon development, but also serve the economic and social development and the realization of the "two centenary" goals, and meet the energy demand for the improvement of people's living standards. You have proposed that the energy transition should be adapted to local conditions, could you please explain how to adapt to local conditions?

Du Xiangwan:The reduction of traditional energy should be based on the substitution of new energy, and the development of new energy across the country is different in each place. For example, in the coastal areas, in the past, they thought that they had no energy, so they relied on electricity from the west to the east, but now this thinking should also change a little. Offshore wind power can be developed in coastal areas, which is a concept that did not exist in the past. The eastern provinces are rich in nuclear power and solar energy resources, and the self-sufficiency rate of energy in the central and eastern regions should be increased, instead of relying solely on the transmission of electricity from the west to the east, as in the past. It should be a combination of "taking from afar" and "coming from afar". The first is to "take from the side", which is really not enough to combine with "come from afar". Eastern China has a fairly high percentage of self-sufficiency and can become an energy "prosumer". The so-called "prosumer" is not only using and consuming energy, but also being able to produce energy itself. At present, there are several energy "prosumer" pilots in China, such as Lankao, Henan, which has produced more electricity than it needs, which proves that the central and eastern regions are rich in solar, wind, biomass and other resources, which can improve energy self-sufficiency. Secondly, the energy development in the central and eastern regions should also focus on the combination of centralized and distributed. It is important to increase the proportion of distribution. The characteristic of renewable energy is that it is widely distributed, so it should be mainly distributed, plus the necessary centralization.

The western region of China is rich in wind and solar resources, and the construction of large-scale clean energy bases is in full swing, which is more suitable for the development of centralized type, and at the same time, it can be sent to the east according to the energy needs of the east. For example, the Qinghai-Henan line from Qinghai to Henan is China's first clean energy transmission UHV channel. To develop wind, solar, and hydropower in the western region, we must first use it in developing the western region's own economy and industry. It is necessary to make use of the abundant resources such as solar and wind energy in the western region to give impetus to the industrial economy in the western region. Different regions carry out energy transition according to their own actual conditions, which is to adapt to local conditions.

Reporter:How can low-carbon energy transition go hand in hand with ensuring national energy security?

Du Xiangwan:As the proportion of renewable energy increases, China's energy security and independence will be stronger. With the advancement of technology, the cost of wind and solar power generation has decreased, and the economy has increased significantly. We have asked two expert groups from North China Electric Power University and Tianjin University to calculate which one is more economical, and the results of the two expert groups' independent calculations are that their own power generation is cheaper, and the cost of 1 kilowatt-hour of electricity generated by themselves is lower than that of 1 kilowatt-hour of electricity from the west to the east, which can be promoted. The conclusion that the cost of self-generated electricity from the east is lower than that of power from the west to the east. Of course, both "taking from afar" and "coming from afar" are needed, but the central and eastern regions must first achieve "taking from afar" and improve their self-sufficiency rate. Self-production and direct sales of electricity to the people can cultivate a large number of "prosumers", which can not only improve the local energy self-sufficiency, independence and security, but also alleviate the impact of a high proportion of renewable energy on the power grid. It can be seen that low-carbon energy transition and energy security go hand in hand.

Reporter:How does wind and solar power generation solve the problem of energy storage, and what is the level of China's energy storage technology in the world?

Du Xiangwan:Wind and solar energy are intermittent, and there is indeed the problem of "relying on the sky to eat", but the intermittent performance of solar and wind energy has become a flexibility that people can control. Through energy storage, the technology has matured, and solar and wind energy have become controllable. Qinghai has done a good job in this regard. At the level of energy storage technology, China is now at a similar level compared with developed countries in the world.

Reporter:The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed to actively develop nuclear power in a safe and orderly manner. The "14th Five-Year Plan for the Modern Energy System" proposes to actively and orderly promote the construction of coastal nuclear power projects on the premise of ensuring safety, rationally arrange new coastal nuclear power projects, and by 2025, the installed capacity of nuclear power operation will reach about 70 million kilowatts. Can you tell us about the current status and future development trend of nuclear energy?

Du Xiangwan:Nuclear energy itself is clean, low-carbon, and has a high energy density, which is the advantage of nuclear energy. However, due to safety considerations in the development of nuclear energy, nuclear energy policies vary considerably from country to country. Globally, nuclear energy accounts for more than 10% of primary energy, and in China, this proportion is less than 5%. The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed the "active, safe and orderly development of nuclear power", and the word "active" here is very important, and there was no such mention in the past. This is mainly due to the progress of nuclear energy safety, and now there are at least four safety barriers in nuclear power plants, and even if an accident occurs, they are controlled in the containment vessel and will not cause unacceptable effects on society, so the proportion of nuclear energy should be actively increased in a safe and orderly manner.

Reporter:The ninth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission pointed out that it is necessary to build a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system, control the total amount of fossil energy, strive to improve the utilization efficiency, implement renewable energy substitution actions, deepen the reform of the power system, and build a new power system with new energy as the main body. How do you achieve high-quality power generation?

Du Xiangwan:According to the State Grid Energy Research Institute, by 2030, China's total electricity consumption will increase from 8.3 trillion kWh in 2021 to 11.8 trillion kWh, an increase of 42%. In the future, China's electricity demand will continue to grow rapidly, and the power industry will face huge pressure to ensure supply. Electricity needs to be balanced between supply and demand, which requires the intelligent power grid, the combination of flexible resources such as wind, photovoltaics, and various energy storage, and the combination of coal power peak shaving. Digital technology can empower the development of the energy industry. We must be aware of China's energy resource endowment, and we must also recognize the application of digital technology in energy, especially in the power grid, to improve efficiency. Theoretically, high-quality power generation can be achieved with good combination. This requires the development of digitalization and the entry of digitalization into people's homes. If we can do that, we can make the most of energy storage. In addition, wind and solar power generation enterprises should consider achieving high-quality output through self-construction or purchase of peak shaving capacity in the initial stage of construction. Although wind and solar are inherently intermittent, high-quality power generation can be achieved by self-built or purchased peak shaving capacity, and peak shaving can be adjusted well.

Reporter:According to data provided by the National Energy Administration, 510 million kilowatts of new renewable energy capacity will be installed globally in 2023, with China contributing more than 50%. China has become an indispensable force in the world's clean energy development. Could you please analyze the prospects for achieving the "dual carbon" goal, and what problems need to be solved urgently?

Du Xiangwan:Achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality is a major strategic decision made by the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at the core after careful consideration, which is related to the sustainable development of the Chinese nation and the building of a community with a shared future for mankind. As the world's largest developing country, China will achieve the world's highest reduction in carbon emission intensity in about 30 years, and achieve carbon neutrality in the shortest time in the world's history. The process is inseparable from the strong support of government departments, the unremitting efforts of scientific and technological workers, the persistent pursuit of technological innovation by science and technology enterprises, and the scientific understanding of the public towards the "double carbon" goal. Building a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system is the key and foundation for achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality. From the current point of view, the prominent problems faced by China include the heavy industrial structure, the coal-biased energy structure, and the low comprehensive efficiency. Moreover, China has only reserved about 30 years to achieve carbon neutrality from carbon peak, which is significantly shorter than the 50-70 years of developed countries. Although the difficulty is not small, through active exploration, active action, and accelerating technological progress and development transformation, China can still achieve high-quality carbon peak and carbon neutrality as scheduled. Personally, I believe that the following eight issues are more critical: decoupling economic development from carbon emissions by means of industrial structure optimization and upgrading, building a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system, accelerating the construction of a new power system with a gradually increasing proportion of new energy, promoting the orderly peak and gradual neutralization of carbon emissions in the industrial sector with the support of electrification and deep decarbonization technologies, realizing the low-carbon transformation of transportation vehicles through a high proportion of electrification, and promoting the transportation sector to achieve carbon peaking. Carbon neutrality: Focusing on breakthroughs in key technologies for green buildings, achieving zero carbon emissions from electricity and heat in buildings, doing a good job in the "last mile" of carbon neutrality, supporting the technical support for carbon removal, accelerating the construction of an integrated planning, deployment, promotion and assessment mechanism for pollution reduction and carbon reduction, establishing and improving the strategy, planning, policy and action system for the overall integration of pollution reduction and carbon reduction, and improving the carbon trading system.