"A particularly bad year"
According to Reuters reported on the 21st, many places in the northern hemisphere have experienced extreme high temperatures in recent days. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2024 will be one of the five hottest years on record in the world, and there is a 50% chance of surpassing 2023 as the "hottest year." The local temperature in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, exceeded 50℃, and the Saudi government issued a high temperature weather warning. According to AFP statistics on the 21st, more than 1000 pilgrims have died during their pilgrimage to Mecca.
India recently suffered its "hottest summer in 120 years", with temperatures in the capital New Delhi once reaching 53℃. Data from the Indian Meteorological Department show that since May 14, the highest temperature in the Indian capital, New Delhi, has reached or exceeded 40 ° C for 38 consecutive days. A health official said on the 19th that from March 1 to June 18, more than 40,000 people in India were suspected of heatstroke, and at least 110 people died. In addition to India, Southeast Asian countries such as the Philippines, Thailand and Bangladesh had already experienced extreme hot weather as early as April, causing drought and deaths.
EuroNews Network said that the average temperature in some parts of Europe this year is 10℃ higher than the same period in previous years, and many cities have closed tourist attractions and schools. Reuters said on the 21st that three tourist deaths occurred in Greece's island tourist resorts last week, and temperatures in Italy's tourist cities such as Rome, Naples and Florence reached 40 ° C this weekend. Temperatures in some areas of Turkey last week were 8 to 12 degrees higher than in previous years. Among them, Istanbul issued a high temperature warning, advising the elderly, sick, pregnant women and children to try not to go out.
According to the Associated Press reported on the 20th, in recent days, large areas of the eastern United States have been affected by the "hot dome" climate phenomenon-that is, hot air cannot circulate under strong high-pressure climate conditions, while preventing cold air from entering, resulting in high surface temperatures. In order to cope with the high temperatures, New York City has opened "emergency cooling rooms" in public institutions such as libraries and nursing centers. In suburban areas with relatively underdeveloped facilities, many schools can only take early vacations to avoid students from heatstroke. U.S. federal government data shows that as of the 20th, as many as 100 million Americans have received notices or warnings of extreme heat.
Deutsche Welle said that 2024 can be called a "particularly bad year" for extreme weather conditions, and frequent high temperatures, droughts and floods have seriously threatened people's health and lives. Affected by heavy rainfall, floods have occurred in Brazil's southernmost state of Rio Grande do Sul since April, making it the country's "worst flood in 80 years." So far, the flood has killed at least 171 people, injured more than 800 people, and left more than 60 people missing. High temperature weather has also led to frequent mountain fires in many countries. Canada entered the fire prevention season early as February this year, and as of May, fires in some forest areas in the western part of the country were almost out of control.《New York Times"According to", New Mexico, the United States, has suffered extreme disasters this year: the state was hit by two mountain fires at the same time this month. About 9300 hectares of land were swallowed by the fire, and more than 1400 buildings were destroyed. Some affected villages have been razed to the ground and become a "ghost town." A double disaster is that some areas of the state received flood warnings again on the 19th.
The frequency of extreme weather is increasing
In recent years, under the combined influence of multiple factors such as global warming and El Niño and La Niña phenomena, meteorological disasters that occur "once in a century" and "once in a millennium" are becoming "every year." In 2020, Europe suffered heavy losses from the storm of the century; in 2021, the western United States suffered the most serious drought crisis since 1200 years; in 2022, some areas in Australia suffered "once-in-500 years" floods; in 2023, Beijing suffered severe heavy rains...
Ma Jun, director of the Center for Public Environmental Research, told the Global Times reporter on the 21st that this year, many places around the world have experienced abnormal high temperatures. For my country, floods in the south and droughts in the north are particularly obvious. Behind this extreme weather are abnormal changes in atmospheric circulation. Specifically, the northern region of our country is controlled by a warm high-pressure ridge. Although it was briefly interrupted by cold vortices and cold air, it quickly returned, resulting in the persistence of high temperature weather. After that, another round of stronger cold air may be needed to break the control of the warm ridge of high pressure. The United States is facing a similar situation, where control of a warm ridge of high pressure has led to widespread hot weather. In addition, the high temperatures in South and Southeast Asia came particularly early this year and lasted for a long time. These high-temperature heat waves are affected by abnormal atmospheric circulation, and also have factors that have continued since the end of the El Niño phenomenon that began last year. The larger background is the global temperature rise trend caused by climate change, leading to extreme weather such as high temperatures and droughts. The frequency shows an increasing trend.
On June 3, the World Meteorological Organization released a forecast saying that the El Niño phenomenon, which has contributed to global temperature rise and extreme weather events from 2023 to 2024, has shown signs of ending, and the La Niña phenomenon may appear later this year. Between July and September 2024, the probability of La Niña occurring is 60%; between August and November, the probability reaches 70%. The World Meteorological Organization said that although the El Niño phenomenon is coming to an end, it does not mean a pause in long-term climate change. Affected by greenhouse gases, the earth will continue to warm. Extreme weather will continue to occur due to the additional heat and moisture in the atmosphere.
The latest "Global Risk Report" released by the World Economic Forum bluntly stated that in the next 10 years, the primary global risk will not be armed conflict or social division, but extreme weather events. "Strict warning: We are increasingly approaching the upper limit of the climate change risk threshold set by the Paris Agreement." The latest report released by the World Meteorological Organization in June revealed an urgent climate situation: in the next five years, at least one year The probability that the global annual average temperature will temporarily be 1.5 ° C higher than pre-industrial levels is 80%. The report predicts that from 2024 to 2028, the annual global average near-surface temperature will be 1.1 ° C to 1.9 ° C higher than the baseline from 1850 to 1900. It is likely that at least one (86%) of the next five years will set a new high temperature record, surpassing 2023, the current hottest year.
Global climate governance enters a critical juncture
Faced with the global threat of climate change, the international community needs to work together to strengthen global cooperation in addressing climate change. A survey report released by the United Nations Development Program on the 20th showed that 80% of the world's affected populationpetitionersEveryone hopes to take stronger climate action. In addition, 53% of globalpetitionersPeople say they are more worried about climate change than last year.
"How to deal with extreme weather?" The website of Russia's weekly "Arguments and Facts" stated that climate change is a long-term challenge. Global climate is abnormal, high temperatures, droughts and irregular rainfall have brought high economic and social costs to the world, and the environment and biodiversity have been extensively damaged. Experts believe that global climate governance has entered a critical juncture and corresponding actions need to be taken on new climate models. In addition to reducing carbon emissions and preventing further increases in temperatures, countries should also strengthen climate change research, improve urban planning, and improve the quality of new energy infrastructure.
Developed countries such as the United States and Europe have shown positive views on climate governance in international negotiations, but their words and deeds are inconsistent in the actual process of advancement, directly dragging down the global climate governance process. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said on May 29 that developed countries will only fulfill their commitment to provide approximately US$100 billion to help poorer countries cope with climate change for the first time in 2022, two years later than originally scheduled. In addition, in the face of Chinese companies exploring the results of green transformation, developed countries such as the United States and Europe did not choose to cooperate. Instead, they continued to introduce policies to contain and suppress them. The British "Financial Times" reported on June 3 that the EU is stepping up efforts to crack down on Chinese wind energy, hydrogen energy and other industries to "protect" domestic companies. However, according to estimates by the International Energy Agency, in the hydrogen energy field, it is difficult for other regions except China to achieve their project plans, and the agency has lowered its expectations for all regions except China.
