Oil majors caught in carbon capture 'Rashomon'

　　Recently, global oil and gas companies are investing heavily in carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies to reduce carbon emissions while continuing to produce fossil fuels. Recently, however, industry experts have warned that CCS technology has not yet been validated on a large scale, and that it may not achieve meaningful decarbonization and affect the global green transition.

　　The oil and gas industry is racing to increase carbon capture capacity and find ways to achieve decarbonization and emission reduction goals, according to a recent announcement by the U.S. Oil Price Network. Despite being one of the largest carbon-emitting industries, many oil and gas majors are optimistic that they can significantly reduce their carbon emissions by using CCS technology. In fact, this is one of the few ways oil and gas companies can achieve carbon reductions while maintaining high fossil fuel production. However, some energy experts and environmentalists are concerned that big oil companies are becoming overly reliant on CCS technology rather than working towards a more meaningful green transition.

　　CCS technology has been around for many years, but so far it has not achieved real success in industrialization, and the CO2 captured with CCS technology is far from the order of magnitude of carbon emissions. In recent years, companies and governments around the world have invested heavily in CCS to develop the technology needed to efficiently capture and store the large amounts of CO2 emitted during industrial, oil and gas operations. However, scientists are still uncertain whether current technologies will capture as much carbon emissions as many oil majors have promised.

　　The International Energy Agency (IEA) believes that CCS technology is critical to achieving net-zero emissions globally. Until alternative production methods and materials are developed, CCS technology is seen as one of the few viable ways to decarbonize hard-to-abate industries. But the IEA also warns that it is unsustainable for oil and gas companies to meet carbon reduction targets for new large-scale fossil fuel projects simply by applying CCS technology to their operations. Many oil majors have invested heavily in CCS technology to justify their ongoing exploration and production activities, which are expected to continue for decades to come. But the IEA has repeatedly said that this is not in line with the vision of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.

　　According to some experts, CCS typically works by using chemical absorption to capture carbon dioxide emitted by a production facility's chimney. These discharges are then concentrated into liquids, transported through pipelines, and stored in abandoned oil wells or geological formations thousands of feet underground. The process is complex, so scaling up CCS technology on a commercial scale is complex and expensive. According to the IEA, more than 1 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide must be captured annually by 2030 to drive carbon reduction targets, a figure more than 20 times higher than in 2022. By 2050, this figure will rise to 6 billion tons, about 130 times the amount in 2022. Despite huge promises, many companies are still falling short of carbon capture targets. To date, only 5% of announced CCS projects have reached a final investment decision. There is still no evidence that commercial-scale CCS technology can be economically scaled up.

　　Oil and gas companies have allocated significant funds for the research and development of CCS technology in the coming years, hoping to continue extracting oil and gas for decades to come. Chevron is expected to invest $10 billion in emissions reduction technologies, while ExxonMobil has pledged $20 billion. The total projected global spending on CCS projects by 2030 is about $241 billion. The United States and the United Kingdom are currently leading the way, investing $85 billion and $45 billion, respectively, by 2030.

　　Many energy experts and environmentalists worry that providing huge funding for CCS technology may simply be "misguided". Due to pressure from governments and international organizations, as well as high consumer expectations, oil and gas companies have accelerated their environmental, social, and corporate governance efforts. However, the cost of CCS technology is high, and many projects have not achieved the desired results. A 2022 study of CCS projects found that there were more failed than successful, including Chevron's Gauguin LNG facility in Australia. This is the largest CCS project in the world to date, costing $3 billion, but it has actually achieved only one-third of the capture capacity it expected. At this rate, companies that rely on CCS technology will not be able to meet their climate goals in the coming years. Some scholars believe that the implementation of CCS technology in the oil and gas industry will not be as effective as expected, which will lead to much higher carbon emissions than expected and delay the global green transition.