Xu Jianwei, China Academy of Macroeconomics: Build new advantages in competition in my country's industrial and supply chains

With the acceleration of a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, the international division of labor and the in-depth adjustment of the economic and trade pattern, the global industrial chain and supply chain have shown new changes such as physical return, track transformation, pattern reconstruction, and green and low-carbon, promoting new industrialization for my country., building a modern industrial system, and cultivating new productive forces have had a profound impact in many aspects. Seize the superposition of high-quality development of manufacturing with new industrialization, the integration of a new round of scientific and technological revolution with industrial innovation, the connection of high-level opening up with the rise of emerging economies, and the integration of the implementation of the "double carbon" goal with global green and low-carbon transformation. Development opportunities such as development opportunities can further consolidate and enhance traditional competitive advantages, forge and expand new competitive long-term boards, and inject new momentum and expand new space for my country to build and improve a modern industrial system and cultivate and develop new productive forces.

The real industrial chain has returned again, and new industrialization has been comprehensively promoted to build new advantages in the industrial system.

At present, Western developed countries are promoting the restructuring of industrial and supply chains and implementing the manufacturing return strategy, which is essentially intended to start the industrialization process again after "de-industrialization". In fact, the economies of most developed countries except South Korea, Japan, and Germany have become highly service-oriented, and the proportion of manufacturing in the economy has dropped to below 15%, and in some countries even below 10%. While the proportion of manufacturing industry is declining, structural problems in the industrial system of Western developed countries are also very prominent. High-tech and cutting-edge industries have an absolute advantage, but the proportion of light textiles, raw materials and processing and assembly industries is low, which has an impact on upstream and downstream cooperation and supply and demand. The circulation at both ends of the industry has caused serious constraints. From a deeper perspective, due to the long-term "de-industrialization" process, some Western developed countries also have obvious shortcomings in terms of process innovation, technical skills, patient capital, platform facilities, etc. that support the development of manufacturing industries. The deep foundation of the entire industrialization has been weakened. Therefore, although some Western developed countries are "yearning" for the return of supply chains and the revitalization of manufacturing industries, they often encounter "development dilemmas" of "twice the effort" and "counterproductive".

Different from some Western developed countries, my country's promotion of new industrialization is a deep evolution and comprehensive upgrade of the industrialization process. The key is to organically combine building a manufacturing power with the development of digital economy and industrial informatization, and accelerate the construction of a modern industrial system with advanced manufacturing as the backbone. Looking at the world, manufacturing is a prominent long-term player for my country to participate in international competition and cooperation. my country's total manufacturing industry ranks first in the world, with the proportion of added value remaining at a high level of more than 26%. The inter-industry structure of light textiles, raw materials, machinery and equipment is relatively reasonable, with multiple advantages such as scale, category, and structural system. Therefore, my country's promotion of new industrialization is different from the return of manufacturing in Western countries after "de-industrialization". Instead, it promotes innovative breakthroughs and iterative upgrades of the industrial system while manufacturing still accounts for a high proportion and complete categories and fields. At the same time, a new round of scientific and technological revolution has injected strong momentum into my country's promotion of new industrialization, which will help my country further lengthen its development, consolidate and improve the scale, efficiency and system advantages of the manufacturing industry, and form a better, higher-level and more sustainable system. Sustained high-level competitive advantage.

Emerging industrial chain tracks have emerged, and the dual engines of technology and industry have joined forces to seize a series of new growth points

Compared with the vertically solidified international division of labor pattern in traditional industries, emerging industries and future industrial development will form a new, more participatory and malleable industrial and supply chain pattern. At present, competition around new growth points in science and technology and industries is becoming increasingly fierce, and major countries are constantly moving forward and strengthening their strategic layout. In the field of traditional industries, scientific and technological innovation and industrial development are in many cases separated or even completely disconnected from each other. However, in emerging industries and future industries, the boundaries between R & D, production and demand tend to be blurred and integration continues to deepen. The innovation chain, The integration of industrial chain, capital chain, and talent chain has become a new development trend. Since the technological gap between developing countries and developed countries in emerging industries and future industries is much smaller than that in traditional areas, this provides a new opportunity for late-developing countries to get rid of low-end lock-in, win the initiative in international division of labor, and achieve catch-up development.

At present, my country is accelerating the construction of a scientific and technological power and a manufacturing power. It has the unique advantage of integrating the innovation chain and industrial chain, and winning a leading position in the construction of industrial chains in emerging industries and future industries. Manufacturing and innovation are the dual engines of high-quality economic and social development, and the integration of the two will unleash huge growth potential. New concepts such as "Industrial Internet","Industry 4.0" and "Internet +" themselves mean that the integration of manufacturing and new technologies will form a newer development path and a higher development form. At present, the integration of my country's manufacturing industry and technological innovation has shown a vigorous development trend, and has formed a first-mover advantage in some new industrial tracks. Among them, the rapidly developing new energy vehicles have become a successful example of my country using scientific and technological innovation to promote industrial innovation and achieve technological and industrial leadership.

Emerging economies are accelerating their rise, and South-South cooperation in industrial and supply chains builds a new development platform

As economic globalization continues to spread and extend, more and more developing countries are participating in the international division of labor, ushering in a stage of rapid economic development. In Asia, the industrialization process of ASEAN and South Asian countries is accelerating, and they have performed well in attracting international direct investment, undertaking processing trade transfers, and integrating into international division of labor and cooperation. Their share in global textile, clothing, furniture, electronics and other export markets continues to increase. In some African countries, low-cost advantages are being released at an accelerated pace, and export trade and economic growth have entered the fast lane. Among other countries, regions such as Mexico and Turkey that are close to developed countries are benefiting from the trade growth effect of the customs union and the trade diversion effect of supply chain diversification, and are emerging as attractive international investment destinations and export processing bases.

The accelerated industrialization process of emerging and developing economies has provided important support for my country to promote high-level opening up and deepen international cooperation in industrial and supply chains. South-South cooperation in industrial and supply chains will help China's capital, technology, production capacity and products "go global". It will also help Chinese companies strengthen the integration and utilization of global resources and improve the level of international competition. For example, behind the rapid development of the electronics processing industry in ASEAN countries, their dependence on China's supply of intermediate products such as integrated circuits, mobile phone parts, lithium-ion batteries, and LCD flat panel display modules continues to deepen. Although my country's enterprises are mostly in the state of introduction, learning and benchmarking and catching up in economic and trade cooperation with developed countries, they are in a high position in investment and trade cooperation with BRICS countries, SCO countries, and countries along the "Belt and Road". Bilateral cooperation can not only make up for the technology and capital gaps in emerging economies, but also help promote Chinese enterprises to leap to the middle and high end of the industrial chain value chain.

With the advent of green and low-carbon supply chains, the "double carbon" goal has been promoted and forged into a new long board for industrial competition.

The crisis of climate change, the crisis of nature and biodiversity loss, and the crisis of pollution and waste have become major threats to human health and global economic activity. According to a report from the International Energy Agency, in 2023, global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions will reach 37.4 billion tons, a record high. Faced with the increasingly severe global ecological and environmental situation, countries around the world have formulated strategic goals for carbon reduction and reduction, and more than 150 countries have made carbon neutrality commitments. Some countries are still trying to build new mechanisms that are conducive to green and low-carbon development. About 75 carbon pricing mechanisms have been launched around the world, including carbon taxes, carbon market trading systems, and carbon credit mechanisms. For example, the EU takes the lead in launching the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism, which will have a series of impacts on tariff policy adjustment, international trade pattern, and global economic development. Under this influence, establishing a green and low-carbon industrial chain and supply chain that are economical, efficient, lean and intensive has become an inevitable choice for the harmonious coexistence of man and nature.

Our country is not only an active advocate of global green and low-carbon development, but also a practical leader in green and low-carbon technological innovation and industrial development. Different from some Western countries that achieve green and low-carbon transformation of the industrial system by transferring industries and links with high resource consumption and high pollution emissions, my country unswervingly follows the path of ecological priority, green and low-carbon development, promotes green technology innovation and green product promotion and construction of green factories to build a green, low-carbon circular development economic system. At present, my country has formed a first-mover advantage in some green and low-carbon industries, becoming the world's largest producer, consumer and exporter of photovoltaics, wind turbines, and new energy vehicles, and has rapidly made breakthroughs in emerging technology fields such as hydrogen energy and energy storage. Relevant data from the National Bureau of Statistics and the National Energy Administration show that in 2023, my country's new energy vehicles will reduce carbon emissions by about 50 million tons for the world; in 2022, my country's renewable energy power generation will be equivalent to reducing domestic carbon dioxide emissions by about 2.26 billion tons, and exported wind power and photovoltaic products have reduced carbon dioxide emissions by about 573 million tons in other countries, making important contributions to countries alleviating the energy crisis and responding to climate change.

The author is a researcher at the Institute of Industrial Economics and Technological Economics of the China Academy of Macroeconomics