Zhang Xiaoyao, academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering: Coordinate security and development, firmly adhere to the goal of 2°C temperature rise, and take the path of carbon neutrality in line with China's reality

"Adhering to the 2°C temperature rise goal is a positive and prudent path to carbon neutrality for my country." On May 25, Zhang Xiaoyao, academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and director of the Greenhouse Gas and Carbon Neutrality Monitoring and Evaluation Center of the China Meteorological Administration, said at the 2024 annual meeting of the Beautiful China 100 Forum held in Wuhan, Hubei Province.

Zhang Xiaoyao spoke on the spot, Zeng Zhen took a photo

The 2°C goal is to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by preventing the global average temperature rise from exceeding 2°C by 2100, 70 years from now, and require the world to strive for near-zero emissions and carbon neutrality by 2075.

"Since the 50s of the last century, that is, after the Second World War, the impact of human activities on global warming has surpassed the impact of natural effects and has played a controlling role." Zhang Xiaoyao explained that in the past 10 years, the world has emitted more than 37 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere every year, and compared with 1750, about 2.72W of energy per square meter is stored in natural ecosystems. This is equivalent to lighting 2.72W light bulbs per square meter on the earth's surface. For more than 200 years, a large amount of energy per square meter of the atmosphere has been stored in the ground-based system, of which 70%-80% comes from human carbon dioxide.

Zhang Xiaoyao believes that by 2050, if the radiation intensity can be reduced from 2.72W per square meter to 1W, the rise in surface temperature can basically be controlled within 2°C. If we do not take any action, the radiation intensity will rise from 2.72W per square meter to 8.5W, the surface temperature will rise to 3 °C - 4 °C, and the global average sea level in 2100 will rise by 63 cm - 102 cm compared with 1900 ~ 1950.

"Climate change is profoundly affecting land, freshwater and marine ecosystems, not only on water security and natural ecosystems, but also on human culture and well-being." Zhang Xiaoyao said that how we can find the best carbon neutrality path to reduce human carbon dioxide emissions is very crucial.

"At the same time, carbon neutrality is very close to China's development philosophy, which is in line with Shunde, that is, to do things that are morally reasonable." Zhang Xiaoyao said that in the second half of the third industrial revolution, with the deepening of Internet applications, economic and social development supported by non-fossil energy has been promoted. Therefore, the concept of carbon neutrality will lead the fourth industrial revolution, which will not only have a major impact on the economic and social system, but also have an impact on China's geopolitical pattern and the country's long-term peace and stability.

At present, China's carbon sink accounts for about 16% of the entire human carbon dioxide emissions, and the base of China's carbon dioxide emissions in 2021 is 11.9 billion tons. Aiming at the goal of 2°C, China proposes to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, which will be achieved 10-15 years ahead of the international community. This requires China to further promote the development of renewable energy, promote emission reduction in many fields, and actively adjust the industrial chain and supply chain. At present, our photovoltaic power generation is already 2.46 times that of 2020, which is the shortest time in the world to achieve carbon neutrality.

However, if the target of 1.5°C temperature rise is determined, it will need to spend 3-4 times more. As the largest developing country in the world, this will put tremendous pressure on my country. "China has to take a big road to tackle climate change, and it should confidently work with the world and the vast number of countries in the South to write a wonderful story in all aspects of the 2°C pathway." Zhang Xiaoyao said.