Explore the green certificate model and develop the green certificate economy
As an emerging form of energy, green electricity is gradually receiving global attention and favor. In recent years, under the background of "double carbon", my country's renewable energy has accelerated its development and has become an important force in ensuring my country's power supply. Data released by the National Energy Administration shows that my country's total installed capacity of renewable energy will reach 1.45 billion kilowatts in 2023, accounting for more than 50% of the country's total installed power generation, historically exceeding the installed capacity of thermal power. As of December 31, 2023, my country's renewable energy generated 3 trillion kilowatt-hours of electricity during the year, accounting for about 1/3 of the electricity consumption of the whole society; wind power and photovoltaic power generation has exceeded the domestic electricity consumption of urban and rural residents during the same period, accounting for the whole society. The proportion of electricity consumption exceeded 15%.
Green electricity not only represents a clean and renewable energy source, but also is human pursuit of sustainable development and environmental protection. In this context, how to promote green clean energy power generation to rely more on market mechanisms to achieve more efficient, fair and reasonable development, and promote the transformation of green energy consumption patterns in the whole society has become the focus of attention in the industry. The emergence of green certificates provides a new way for the consumption of renewable energy electricity, and also provides new impetus for promoting the development of renewable energy. At present, Europe, the United States, Japan, South Korea and other countries and regions have established green certificate trading mechanisms in the field of renewable energy and power. Building a green certificate model and developing a green certificate economy are of great practical significance for my country to build a unified national market and a green low-carbon circular economic system and achieve the "double carbon" goal.
A power company in Inner Mongolia achieves continuous green power through complementary wind and wind
Green certificate and the intrinsic mechanism of green certificate economy
Environmental value of green certificate
The green certificate not only realizes the measurement of renewable energy electricity, but also represents the atmospheric environmental contribution of unit electricity produced by renewable energy (usually 1MWh). It is a trading tool that converts the environmental benefits of renewable energy electricity into economic benefits. Under the green certificate mechanism, renewable energy power generation companies have produced two separate and independent commodities: green certificates and on-grid physical electricity. The price of green certificates reflects the economic value of renewable energy power generation's contribution to the environment, and the electricity price reflects the commodity value of physical electricity.
From the perspective of environmental economics, the atmosphere is a natural capital and a public good. The positive externalities produced by renewable energy power generation can be solved through a market-based mechanism that compensates for the contribution of the atmospheric environment through the green certificate trading system; while greenhouse gas emissions The negative externalities generated can be solved through a market-based mechanism that pays for the use of the atmospheric environment.
After the produced electricity is connected to the power grid, it will be mixed and the sources cannot be distinguished. The certainty of purchasing green electricity can be solved through the mechanism of issuing and trading green certificates.
In theory, all equal amounts of renewable energy electricity have the same external environmental value. My country's issuance of green certificates for the power generation of various renewable energy sources is the best way to universally and fairly reflect and recognize their external environmental attributes. The full coverage of green certificates will help improve the green certificate trading market, expand the application fields of green certificates, and expand the scope of international mutual recognition of green certificates.
Price mechanism of green certificate
Green certificates are divided into subsidy certificates and parity certificates, and have different pricing mechanisms. The subsidy certificate is positioned to solve the financial subsidy gap and adopts the pricing model of "making up the limit and free bidding", that is, the buyer and seller can confirm the price of the subsidy certificate through self-negotiation or centralized pricing, and the maximum amount of the project's electricity subsidy shall not exceed, which belongs to a semi-market mechanism. In contrast, the pricing of the parity certificate refers to factors such as electricity costs and environmental benefits of the item, which are determined by free negotiation between the buyer and the seller. There are no upper and lower limits, and it belongs to a market-oriented mechanism.
From the perspective of power generation, the large-scale consumption of new energy not only occupies the transfer space of thermal power, but also relies on thermal power to provide basic services, so system consumption costs need to be paid; from the perspective of users, the use of green electricity can reduce their own carbon emission levels, so it is manifested as paying emission costs. The two costs add up to constitute the market basis for environmental premium and are affected by the supply and demand relationship of green certificates. Green certificate pricing anchors the electricity auxiliary services market and the carbon market, representing premium conversion costs.
In 2021, new energy projects will begin to achieve affordable Internet access, new energy electricity prices will begin to implement "benchmark electricity price + environmental premium", and benchmark electricity prices will gradually shift to market electricity prices. Environmental premium has become an integral part of the income of power generation companies. At this time, the green certificate price is more in line with market-oriented pricing principles, reflecting the additional cost bonus of new energy power in addition to construction and operation and maintenance. The environmental premium of new energy is crucial to the investment income of new energy projects.
At present, the environmental premium represented by green certificates reflects the environmentally friendly value attribute of green electricity. Its value is determined by the market, and the value is determined by the effectiveness of the green certificate itself (i.e. effective demand). This effectiveness comes from renewable Mandatory requirements, voluntary commitments or emission deductions for energy consumption guarantee mechanisms. Therefore, green certificates are a reflection of environmental value, and their prices are formed by the market.
Domestic green certificate prices may change with policy boundaries and market supply and demand adjustments. At present, there are differences in the prices of green certificates between foreign and domestic countries. Although the domestic price is higher than that of foreign countries (recently equivalent to 1 - 3 cents/kWh), it is still far lower than the external environmental value. Policy guarantees are needed to fully reflect the external environmental value. The price of green certificates plays the role of regulating the consumption of renewable energy power. When the price of green certificates meets a certain threshold, complete consumption can be achieved.
As supply and demand in the green certificate market stabilize, the price of green certificates will gradually stabilize. As green electricity prices gradually become market-oriented in the future, stable environmental premium returns are expected to balance investment in new energy projects, which can be regarded as new energy capacity electricity prices to a certain extent.
Operating mechanism of green certificate economy
Green certificate economy essentially belongs to the category of realizing the value of ecological products, mainly realized through additive effects, multiplier effects and index effects.
In terms of addend effects, physical quantitative growth is more common in product-driven models, mainly achieved through internal tapping of potential within enterprises and integration of upstream and downstream enterprises. For example, after enterprises purchase green certificates, the products they produce are increased with green certificate consumption certificates.
In terms of multiplier effects, chemical qualitative growth is more common in technology-driven models. It mainly builds innovation and entrepreneurship platforms, builds various technology incubators and accelerators, creates a business environment that stimulates innovation and entrepreneurship, and promotes technological innovation-driven growth. Judging from the results of the development of the green certificate industry, namely economic benefits, environmental benefits and social benefits, the output of the development of the green certificate industry also has a multiplier effect. For example, after investing in renewable energy power generation projects, green electricity and green certificates are produced, which on the one hand meet the needs of consumer groups, and on the other hand, the economic and social benefits generated by project development increase exponentially.
In terms of exponential effects, exponential leapfrog growth is more common in ecology-driven models, mainly achieved by building an industrial ecology to promote industrial operation innovation and create an industrial community, such as building green electricity to produce green hydrogen-synthesizing hydrogen-based green fuels-developing green transportation industry ecology, the income of the entire industrial chain and supply chain will be exponential growth based on the income of individual projects or enterprises.
Green certificate economic development path
offshore wind farm
To develop the green certificate economy, we must not only create a high-quality green certificate industrial chain, but also build a mutually beneficial and win-win industrial ecological community.
Create a green certificate industry chain
To build a green certificate industry chain, we can start from three dimensions: developing product markets, enriching application scenarios, and innovating industrial technologies.
First of all, the development of green certificate products is a supply-side change and basic work. It mainly includes non-tradable green certificates and tradable green certificates, as well as future-oriented green certificate financial products, which will have a greater impact on the actual green certificate market. Non-tradable green certificates are mainly green certificates issued based on voluntary self-use of green electricity. Tradable green certificates include "integration of securities and electricity" green certificates and "separation of securities and electricity" green certificates. Green certificate financial products are commercial activities based on green certificate transactions that serve green electricity production or green electricity consumption to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The carrier of financing activities using green certificates as a medium or target can be subdivided into Green certificate market financing instruments, green certificate market trading instruments and green certificate market support instruments. Among them, the green certificate market financing instruments are green certificate financial products that use green certificate assets as the target for financing, mainly including green certificate bonds, green certificate asset pledge financing, green certificate asset repurchase, green certificate asset custody, etc.; Green certificate market trading instruments, also known as green certificate financial derivatives, are based on green certificate trading, using quotas Financial contracts with the subject matter (in the form of renewable energy power consumption responsibility weight, energy conservation target responsibility, etc., which are mandatory) and green certificate (voluntary), mainly include green certificate forward, green certificate futures, green certificate options, green certificate swaps, green certificate loans, etc.; green certificate market support tools are financial products that provide quantitative services, risk management and product development for activities such as the development and management of green certificate assets, and mainly include green certificate index, green certificate insurance, green certificate funds, etc.
Secondly, enriching application scenarios belongs to consumer-side transformation and are key tasks, including using green certificates as green consumption certificates to participate in accounting assessment and certification, participating in market transactions as green trading commodities, and participating in green financial activities as green assets. In addition, green certificates can also be used as green production factors to participate in production and operation. At present, the concept of green development is profoundly affecting people's production and life, and the use concepts and scenarios of green certificates are undergoing changes. With the development of the digital economy, green certificate digital assets will become the next super-large green asset, just like today's carbon assets.
Thirdly, innovative green certificate industry technology belongs to technological change, which mainly includes online data, that is, online issuance, verification, and accounting of green certificates; adopting big data technology and applied to quota and green certificate issuance, verification, and accounting; Adopt blockchain technology for green certificate issuance, transaction, verification, accounting and traceability; in the future, artificial intelligence technology can be used for online automatic issuance, verification, accounting and consultation of green certificates. With the development of digital energy technology, the Internet of Things technology and the energy industry can be deeply integrated in the future, and big data and artificial intelligence can be relied on to achieve collaborative optimization of energy categories, which can be used for the optimal configuration of green certificates.
Build an industrial community
To build an industrial ecosystem, in essence, it also applies the addend effect, multiplier effect and index effect to achieve industrial development. There are mainly the "green certificate +" model, the "green certificate ×" model, and the "green certificate industry community" model.
The "Green Certificate +" model means that through green certificates, it combines industries or activities that need to consume green certificates, and is more of a superposition and integration at the physical level. Increase the consumption of green certificates through existing industries or activities to help green industrial transformation and upgrading or low-carbon activities. In this process, the green certificate exists more as a certificate, without substantial innovation.
The "Green Certificate ×" model means that green certificates can spawn a series of industries or activities that need to consume green certificates. "Green Certificate ×" focuses on counter-trend innovation. In this model, green certificates are the main body, tapping the advantages of relevant industries, giving full play to the ecological value of green certificate elements, and forming a new economic form centered on green certificates. The "Green Certificate ×" model relies on green certificate industry technology to achieve the integration of green certificates and related industries, and achieves green economic transformation and upgrading by optimizing production factors, updating business systems, and reconstructing business models. For example, the component sector is the leader of the photovoltaic industry, and the multiplier effect is very obvious. Green certificate resources are invested in projects in the form of assets, which can drive several times of investment and exert the investment multiplier effect.
The "Green Certificate Industry Community" model means building an industrial community around green certificates, also called a green certificate industry cluster. Mao Guanglie, consultant of the China Informatization 100-member Association and director of the Intelligent Manufacturing Expert Committee of Zhejiang Province, previously proposed an "industrial digital ecological community." Head enterprises play a leading role. Various "body enterprises","waist enterprises" and "leg enterprises" such as "industry-university-research and application" participate together and rely on each other, coupled with the participation of third-party cloud platform companies, constitute the basic composition model of the "industrial digital ecological community." Li Xufu, founding partner of Xinli Capital and adjunct professor at the School of Economics of Fudan University, previously proposed a future that meets the six characteristics of "aggregation of all factors, opening up of all links, penetration of key nodes, value creation, ecological sharing, and integration of multiple platforms". Industrial ecological community model. The "Work Points for Chengdu City's Implementation of the Action to Build Industrial Circles and Strengthen Chain in 2022" proposes to improve the industrial ecosystem in which "chain owners + public platforms + intermediaries + industry and investment funds + leading talents" gather and coexist to create an "industrial community." The "Green Certificate Industry Community" model will build a chain owner enterprise to take the lead, and various "body enterprises","waist enterprises" and "leg enterprises" such as "industry-university-research and application" will jointly participate in value creation, ecological sharing, and multi-platform integration, coupled with the participation of third-party institutions, green certificate financial institutions and leading talents, form a green certificate industry ecosystem that gathers and symbioses.
Developing a green certificate economy must also make up for shortcomings
At present, the development of the green certificate economy still faces many difficulties. For example, the green certificate trading system is not yet perfect, international recognition needs to be improved, and the green certificate economy is still in its infancy, all of which require innovative breakthroughs in future practice.
Continuously optimize and improve the green certificate market system
At this stage, tradable green certificates can only be traded once. The combination of green certificate transfer and renewable energy power quotas is conducive to the establishment of a cross-regional trading mechanism for green certificates. Therefore, in the future, it is necessary to study the possibility of multiple trading of green certificates, explore the establishment of a secondary market for green certificates, promote the trading and application of green certificates through market-oriented methods, and increase market trading volume and trading activity. Explore and develop green certificate financial products, and expand the green certificate market and green certificate industry by introducing financial capital.
Dialogue, consultation and mutual recognition of carbon reduction and green certificates "two-pronged"
On the one hand, we must systematically carry out carbon reduction work and build a green trade system. In order to cope with international changes, it is urgent to carry out green economic and trade cooperation actions, optimize the trade structure, and create new advantages for high-quality development of foreign trade. On the other hand, we must give full play to the advantages of digital technology and promote international mutual recognition of green certificates. The green certificate records detailed attribute information of green electricity and is a ready-made and accurate carbon emission reduction verification method that can form a good connection with the carbon market. Recognizing that green certificates have zero-carbon attributes is the basis for establishing a mutual recognition mechanism for green certificates and carbon emission quotas, and will promote enterprises to actively purchase green electricity. Data sharing among green electricity, green certificates and carbon markets should be strengthened to avoid data fraud and duplicate transactions, connect with the international green certificate market, and increase international recognition.
Accelerate the cultivation of green certificate economy
First of all, we must speed up the full coverage of green certificate issuance and expand green certificate application scenarios. For projects for spontaneous self-use of green electricity, detailed rules for green certificate certification and issuance should be issued as soon as possible. Introduce detailed rules for the consumption and write-off of green certificates as soon as possible to guide the consumption of green certificates. Secondly, do a good job in top-level design for the development of green certificate economy and step up layout and development. Thirdly, pilot the "Green Certificate +" model,"Green Certificate ×" model, and "Green Certificate Industry Ecological Community" model, select high-power-consuming industries such as electrolytic aluminum to pilot the creation of green certificate products and green certificate enterprises, choose to adopt advanced renewable energy technology projects or green certificate industry technology projects to create green certificate technology demonstration projects, select representative foreign trade industrial parks to pilot the creation of green certificate parks, select green electricity-green hydrogen-hydrogen-based fuel-transportation projects, Industrial clusters such as green electricity, green hydrogen and chemical projects will pilot the creation of a green certificate industrial community.
(Author's unit: China International Engineering Consulting Co., Ltd.)
