Academician Xie Kechang: What is the most direct, effective and economical means to achieve "carbon peak and carbon neutrality"?
What is the most direct, effective and economical means to achieve "carbon peak and carbon neutrality"? Academician Xie Kechang gave the answer: no energy, less energy, energy saving!
This article is from a special speech delivered by Academician Xie Kechang, who pointed out that China is still facing the reality of low energy efficiency, and China's energy consumption per unit of GDP is 1.4-1.5 times the world average. Therefore, compared with expanding the way of carbon dioxide resource utilization, energy conservation and efficiency improvement are the first best choices to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality.
The following is the full text of Academician Xie Kechang's speech:
1. Energy conservation is the most important way to achieve a significant reduction in carbon emissions
Energy conservation and energy efficiency are the most important ways to achieve large-scale carbon dioxide emission reductions in the energy system by 2050. According to the International Energy Agency, if global greenhouse gas emissions fall from the current 33 billion tons to about 10 billion tons by 2050, energy conservation and energy efficiency will contribute 37% to global carbon dioxide emissions reduction by 2050, 32% to the development of renewable energy, 8% to fuel substitution, 3% to the development of nuclear power, 9% to CCUS technology, and 12% to be met by other technologies. It can be seen that before 2050, energy conservation and energy efficiency improvement are regarded as the most important ways to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in the global energy system.
2. The per capita energy consumption of developed countries has reached a peak, and has gradually declined through strengthening energy conservation
The history of human social development shows that with the continuous development of a country's economy, its per capita energy consumption is gradually increasing, and after industrialization and urbanization are basically completed, per capita energy consumption will reach saturation, and the saturation time can be maintained for 20 years, 30 years, or even longer. Historically, the per capita energy consumption of the United States, Canada and other countries has been as high as 11~12tce (tons of standard coal), and Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan and other countries have also reached at least 6tce.
It is worth noting that since the 90s of the 20th century, developed countries have realized that only by reducing energy consumption can they reduce carbon dioxide emissions, and at the same time create conditions for accelerating fossil energy substitution. Developed countries such as the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Japan have increased their attention to energy conservation and energy efficiency, and have taken measures to reduce their own energy consumption.
After nearly 20 years of efforts, per capita energy consumption in the United States has dropped from 11.1 tces in 2000 to 9.8 tces in 2019, Germany from 6.1 tces in 2000 to 5.4 tces in 2019, the United Kingdom has reduced per capita energy consumption from 5.6 tces in 2000 to 4.0 tces in 2019, and Japan has dropped from 5.8 tces in 2000 to 5.0 tces in 2019. The decline in per capita energy consumption and the total energy consumption in the country has made an important contribution to the reduction of CO2 emissions in these countries. Controlling the growth of energy consumption while developing the economy is the biggest challenge facing China to reduce carbon dioxide emissions
China's energy consumption is still on the rise, with per capita energy consumption of 3.4 TCE in 2019, gradually approaching the current per capita energy consumption level in the United Kingdom, Japan and Germany.
If we want to achieve "carbon neutrality" before 2060, it means that there is not enough time for China to repeat the "three-step" process of rapid growth in per capita energy consumption in developed countries, then saturation for a long time, and finally gradual decline. In the construction of a modern country, China's per capita energy consumption must always be controlled at a low level, and the grand goal of building a modern country by 2035 and a modern power by 2050 with low energy consumption must be achieved.
3. Energy saving is so important, how can we do a good job of energy conservation
Implement the new development concept, and deeply integrate energy conservation and efficiency into the new journey of building a modern country
Energy conservation and efficiency improvement is not a technical measure, but a major task involving the development concept, development path, production mode, and lifestyle, which needs to be strengthened and always adhered to in the whole process and various fields. Lasting promotion of energy conservation and efficiency improvement is not only a major social project, but also an arduous system project.
Starting from the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, we must be guided by the new development concept, promote economic restructuring, significantly improve energy efficiency standards, accelerate energy price and tax reform, and promote China to embark on a new modern development path with high energy efficiency, low energy consumption and "carbon neutrality".
(1) Guided by the new development concept, energy conservation and efficiency improvement should be regarded as an important evaluation criterion for high-quality development
China's construction of a modern country must be guided by the new development concept of innovation, coordination, green, openness and sharing, always adhere to the basic national policy of resource conservation, adhere to the people-oriented development goals, and continue to promote high-quality development.
In the construction of a new development pattern with the domestic cycle as the main body and the international and domestic dual cycles promoting each other, it is necessary to take whether it is economical and efficient, and whether it is conducive to the realization of the goal of "carbon neutrality" as an important evaluation index and entry threshold, so as to promote the allocation of energy resources more reasonably, greatly improve the efficiency of energy utilization, and effectively promote the change of quality, efficiency and power. It is necessary to establish a long-term system of energy conservation and energy efficiency improvement, and further improve the level of energy efficiency while sustaining economic growth, so as to reduce the difficulty of achieving the goal of "carbon neutrality" before 2030 and 2060.
(2) Optimize the economic structure and industrial structure, and continue to explore the energy-saving space of the structure
Industrial structure is an important starting point for energy conservation and energy efficiency. We should further give full play to energy conservation and improve energy efficiency, and accelerate the role of accelerating the adjustment of China's economic structure, industrial structure, and energy structure, so that economic development and energy consumption growth can be gradually "decoupled".
Comparing the history of industrial structure changes in the United States, Britain, Japan, and Germany, it can be found that China's primary industry still has room for decline of 6 percentage points, industry has at least about 3 percentage points of room for decline, and service industry has at least about 10 percentage points of room for growth. Generally speaking, the energy consumption per unit of GDP of the service industry is much lower than that of the secondary industry, and the increase in the proportion of the service industry is not only an objective law of economic development, but also the general trend of China's economic development, and is also conducive to the realization of China's energy-saving and low-carbon goals.
In addition to the adjustment of the three industrial structures, the internal structural adjustment of the industry has made a greater contribution to energy conservation and efficiency improvement. It is necessary to comply with the law of market demand adjustment, further promote the supply-side structural reform, increase the proportion of reduction and replacement of high-energy-consuming industries such as steel and cement, and include high energy efficiency and low carbon emissions in the threshold of capacity reduction and replacement. All provinces should be encouraged to establish industrial access lists according to local conditions, list new projects as encouraged, restricted and prohibited, and promote the matching of new fixed asset investment with energy intensity reduction targets and long-term "carbon neutrality" goals. It is necessary to speed up the development of a new generation of information technology, new energy, new energy vehicles, energy conservation and environmental protection and other strategic emerging industries, so that the internal structure of industry and various industries will change to the direction of high added value and low energy consumption.
In addition, industries targeting the international market have increased China's energy consumption and carbon emission burden to a certain extent, and it is necessary to plan in advance in combination with the long-term "carbon neutrality" goal.
(3) For key areas with strong lock-in effect, unconventional measures should be adopted to greatly improve energy efficiency access standards
In the past ten years, China is in the stage of urbanization, with more than 4 billion square meters of newly completed construction area every year. With less than 40 years to go before 2060, these new housing and infrastructure will need to be renovated or even demolished and rebuilt in the next 40 years if they do not adopt the world's most advanced energy-efficient technologies.
For key energy-using areas such as residential buildings, public buildings, and energy infrastructure, which have a strong lock-in effect, high investment and large scope of influence, we can no longer continue the traditional way of "following" and slow iteration of market-driven technology. It is necessary to strengthen government leadership, pay close attention to the formulation of energy efficiency standards that match the goal of "carbon neutrality", greatly increase energy efficiency access requirements, and make the energy efficiency level of new buildings and infrastructure "run" or even "lead" with developed countries as soon as possible.
(4) Promote new energy-saving technologies, new models and new formats, and tap cross-departmental and cross-industry energy-saving potential
Innovation is the fundamental driving force for energy conservation and energy efficiency. In recent years, the Chinese government has continued to release new energy-saving technologies to promote customers to understand and use new technologies. Facing the goal of "carbon neutrality", we should further strengthen the leading role of scientific and technological innovation, explore new energy-saving processes, new materials and new design ideas, accelerate the promotion of new energy-saving technologies, new models and new formats, and provide more solutions for tapping the energy-saving potential of the industry.
In addition to digging deep into the energy-saving potential within the industry, cross-industry resource integration is a "blue ocean" for energy conservation and efficiency. In recent years, China's industrial enterprises have left the city to enter the park to gather, through the integration of the park enterprises heat, electricity, water, gas demand, centralized planning and construction of heat, natural gas and power infrastructure, and to achieve multi-energy complementarity and intelligent control, the park energy consumption can be reduced by 15% ~ 20%, enterprise energy and pollutant treatment costs will also be significantly reduced. It is necessary to further strengthen the utilization of waste heat in industrial parks, energy-saving transformation of parks and comprehensive energy services, break down the institutional barriers to resource integration, and dig deep into the energy-saving potential of cross-departmental, cross-industry and cross-energy varieties.
(5) Improve energy market signals and promote the internalization of external costs
Market signals are the endogenous driving force for energy conservation under the conditions of market economy, and an important "baton" to mobilize the whole society to save energy and reduce carbon emissions.
Therefore, it is necessary to accelerate the reform of energy prices, so that energy prices can better reflect market supply and demand, reflect the scarcity of energy resources and the loss of ecological environment, especially the impact of carbon emissions. It is necessary to study effective ways to use tax means to promote carbon emission reduction, and explore feasible ways to increase the fossil energy resource tax or introduce a carbon tax. “
During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, we should strive to initially incorporate the "impact of carbon dioxide emissions" into the energy market signal system, so that market forces can play a greater role in the process of achieving "carbon peak" and "carbon neutrality" in China.
(6) Common key technologies and disruptive technologies are the key to leading innovation
It is necessary to start from basic research to achieve innovation. Talking about the next step of development, Xie Kechang said that the goal of industrial innovation is to save energy and efficiency, low-carbon and water-saving, as well as low-cost and high-quality. "Coal-based energy and chemical industry emission reduction should be done and not done, and it should not be done in a radical way. Common key technologies and disruptive technologies are the key to leading innovation, and they need to be supported and reserved. ”
For example, Xie Kechang said that improving the utilization rate and conversion rate of coal as a raw material resource, adjusting the hydrocarbon proportion of coal-based syngas with new methods, and realizing the coupling conversion of renewable energy and coal are all effective ways to overcome the bottleneck of high carbon emissions from the source. "Of course, it's not blind. It is necessary to first understand the conversion process of coal, understand the coal chemical reaction from the molecular level, and research and develop clean and efficient new integrated technologies and processes, so as to achieve energy conservation and emission reduction. It is necessary to integrate multiple industries, promote the combination of modern coal chemical industry and renewable energy to produce hydrogen, materials and chemicals, etc., and realize the refinement, differentiation and greening of products. ”
