Europe's right wing failed to "conquer" northern Europe, but the Green Party lost. Is EU green policy sustainable?

According to a report by Xinhua Agency on June 10, voting for the 10th European Parliament election came to an end on the evening of the 9th Brussels time. Preliminary statistics show that the centrist stance of the Renaissance Europe Party and the Party Group composed of the Green Party and the European Freedom Union have received a large reduction in seats, and the European Parliament has been significantly tilted to the right.

Although the rise of the extreme right in this election had a great impact on major European countries such as France and Germany, the German Green Party lost power, French President Macron announced the dissolution of parliament, and the ruling parties of the two countries lost to the opposition right-wing parties respectively, the extreme right forces failed to "conquer" the Nordic region, and the Left and Green Parties made gains locally. At the same time, centrist parties are performing strongly in Eastern European countries such as Poland.

Against the backdrop of a "right-turn" result in this European Parliament election, the right wing's skepticism about the EU's green policy, and the Green Party's defeat in major European countries such as France and Germany, the sustainability of the EU's green policy has been questioned. Some analysts believe that the existing EU policies may remain unchanged, but they may encounter obstacles when adopting new relevant legislation.

Northern Europe has become a "frustrated" place for the right wing, while Eastern Europe has strong centrists

According to a report by the Guardian on June 10, in Denmark, the opposition Socialist People's Party (SF) saw an unexpected surge in support, winning 17.4% of the votes. Compared with the results of the 2019 European Parliament election, this figure increased by 4.2 percentage points. The ruling Social Democratic Party won 15.6% of the votes. The common feature of the two parties is their centre-left stance.

In response, Danish Prime Minister Fraser Rickson posted on social platforms saying that in Denmark, the political stance of the Socialist People's Party is closest to that of the Social Democratic Party, and she is very happy to see the left-wing party making progress in the election. "In most of Europe, significant progress has been made on the right. In Denmark, the left wing stands out."

Euronews Network reported that Finlandleft-wing coalitionIt received 17.3% of the vote and won three seats in the European Parliament, compared with only one seat in the 2019 election. Finland has a total of 15 seats in the European Parliament.

Party leader Li Andersson told Finnish Radio Television (YLE):"I am still shocked. It was an incredible result and much better than I expected."

In addition to Northern Europe, Reuters reported that in Poland, Prime Minister Tusk's centrist party, the Citizens 'Alliance (KO), won 38.2% of the votes in the election, while the "Eurosceptic" and Law and Justice Party, which often disagreed with the EU, won 33.9%.

In response, Tusk said,"German politicians have no reason to be happy, and French authorities have reason to be sad. But outside the great powers, Poland's election results show that democracy is winning again."

In Hungary, another Eastern European country, although the ruling coalition led by Prime Minister Orban (the Youth League and the Christian Democratic Party) led by 43.76% of the vote, the results were not as expected or recorded the worst performance in Orban's 14 years in power. The newly established Respect and Freedom Party has emerged, closely following with 30.70% of the vote and is expected to win seven seats.

In addition to Eastern Europe and Northern Europe, the extreme right has had a considerable impact on other European countries. The British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) reported on June 10 that in France, after losing to the far-right "National Alliance" in the European Parliament election, Macron announced the dissolution of the parliament and would make a "big political gamble", announcing that two new rounds of parliamentary elections will be held on June 30 and July 7.

However, the BBC said Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo "did not understand" Macron's actions because the Paris Olympics are about to open on July 26. Hidalgo said: "I am as shocked as many people are. Dissolving parliament on the eve of the Olympics is a very disturbing thing." International Olympic Committee President Bach responded by saying there was no sign that the unity of French political leaders 'support for the Olympics would break.

In Germany, where the ruling party's election is equally bleak, a spokesman for Chancellor Scholz said that although all three parties in the ruling coalition lag behind conservatives and the far right in the election, Germany will not follow France's lead in early elections. "The election date is set for next fall, and that's our plan."

Can green policies continue to be "green"?

Although France, Germany and other countries have been hit hard by the right wing, this European Parliament election generally shows a "slight right turn" trend. In addition to the right-wing parties, the Green Party lost its seats in the election, raising concerns about the EU's green issues.

An article published in the Guardian pointed out that the election results showed that the Greens/EFA Party won 53 seats, making it the sixth largest among the seven groups in the European Parliament. In 2019, the group became the fourth largest group in the parliament with 71 seats.

According to reports, in Germany, the "core stronghold" of the Green Party, the party's support rating in this election has dropped by nearly half compared with the previous election. Exit polls show that in Germany, the Green Party's support rate is 12% in this election, compared with 20.5% in the last election.

However, Dutch MP Bas Eickhout, deputy leader of the Green Party/European Liberal Union party, said he was not frustrated by the election results and promised to accelerate the green deal.

"I wouldn't say this is a referendum on the green deal itself," Eickout said. Even so, the results were mixed. The Labour/Green Left Alliance combination leads the election. Would you say that the Netherlands fully supports the green deal and Germany does not? I think it's too simple to say."

According to Dutch election results, the Labor/Green Left Alliance combination won eight seats, slightly ahead of the far-right Liberal Party's seven seats. Despite this, because the Liberal Party did not win any seats in the 2019 European Parliament elections, this time the far right won a "big victory" in the Netherlands.

The report pointed out that the Green Party performed well in the 2019 election because of climate activities led by Swedish environmentalist Greta Thunberg, which put climate issues on the agenda. However, in the context of this election, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the sluggish economy in Europe, the environment is no longer the primary concern of voters.

Reuters analysis said that although the "right turn" of the European Parliament will make it difficult for the EU to adopt climate policies, most existing green policies may remain unchanged.

"I don't think we're going to go backwards on climate policy," Eickout told Reuters. But I do agree that developing new policies will become more complex."

Reuters said the next five years will be crucial for the EU to achieve its 2030 climate change goals. In the past five years, the EU has passed a package of laws on clean energy and carbon dioxide emissions to achieve its 2030 climate goals. But it is not ruled out that after this election, far-right politicians who are skeptical of the green deal will weaken the influence of these laws and review them in future years.

EuroNews Network analyzed that one of the reasons why the far right opposes the green agreement is concerns about its impact on industries that rely heavily on fossil fuels and may lead to unemployment and economic difficulties. Some nationalists believe that the "green deal" weakens the EU's energy supply independence.

In December 2019, the EU proposed the "European Green Agreement", which aims to put the EU on the path of ecological transformation and ultimately achieve climate neutrality by 2050. However, due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the implementation of the agreement has exacerbated the rise in energy prices and led to a sharp rise in the cost of living in Europe.

In 2021, the European Commission proposed a package plan to address climate change, aiming to reduce the EU's net greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% compared with 1990 levels by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.