How to evaluate the new energy system? Let's take a look at the research results of Tsinghua University
A seminar with the theme of "Connotation of New Energy Systems and Comprehensive Evaluation Indicator System" was recently held in Beijing. The seminar was jointly organized by the Institute of Carbon Neutrality of Tsinghua University, the Department of Energy and Power Engineering of Tsinghua University and the Natural Resources Defense Association (NRDC).
Wang Zhongying, former director of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, Liu Qibin, a researcher at the Institute of Engineering Thermophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wang Shujuan, professor of the Department of Energy and Power Engineering, Tsinghua University, Zhang Jieqing, chief representative of the NRDC Beijing Representative Office, Lin Mingche, director of the NRDC Energy Transformation Project, and Huang Hui, senior director, attended the seminar.
The picture shows Wang Shujuan, a professor at the Department of Energy and Power Engineering at Tsinghua University, speaking at the forum. Photo by Zhonghuan News reporter Wen Wen
"Double carbon" goals spawn new energy systems
"The core elements of the new energy system are green, security and economy. During the construction process, the balanced relationship between the three must be grasped." Wang Zhongying believes that looking forward to 2060, with the high proportion of electrification in the terminal energy industry, the energy structure will be dominated by electricity. The main characteristics of the energy system will be large system, centralized, top-down, closed, and supply-centered. Gradually shift to modularity, distribution, bottom-up, openness, and consumer-centered. In terms of stages, by 2035, the electricity consumption of the whole society is expected to reach 16 trillion kWh; by 2060, the electricity consumption of the whole society is expected to reach 20 trillion kWh. "Therefore, building a new energy system with electricity as the core is the top priority, and adhering to the principles of system coordination and diversified balance to build a new power system."
Wang Zhongying said that building a new power system specifically includes: promoting a high proportion of electrification in the terminal energy industry, and the electrification rate will reach more than 70% by 2060; vigorously developing renewable energy, mainly wind and solar power generation, to achieve green power, and by 2060 Renewable energy The proportion of power supply reaches more than 90%; developing highly intelligent transmission and distribution networks and dispatching systems.
Liu Qibin introduced the current status and future of the development of solar energy and natural gas hydrogen production technologies. He believes that hydrogen energy is one of the important emerging strategic industries in the future. For hydrogen production from fossil energy such as natural gas, CO2 source capture and low-energy hydrogen production can be achieved through directional migration and conversion of hydrocarbon components. In addition, renewable energy such as solar energy can be used to produce green hydrogen. However, at present, the proportion of green hydrogen produced from renewable energy is very small, whether abroad or domestically. "But with the further large-scale development of renewable energy in the future, renewable energy, mainly wind and light, will face important consumption challenges, which will make it possible to use some of the difficult renewable energy to be converted into stable hydrogen energy and serve as an important energy storage method becomes possible. In addition, in the future, as the cost of renewable energy power generation declines, the efficiency of hydrogen production gradually improves, and the development of hydrogen storage and hydrogen transportation industries matures, the potential for the development of the hydrogen energy industry will be further released."
"In recent years, my country has introduced a number of policies and measures for energy transformation and green development, covering many aspects such as renewable energy development, new power system construction, carbon dual control and product carbon footprint." Zhang Jieqing said that at present, the development speed and scale of my country's renewable energy have attracted worldwide attention. However, the security risks brought by the rapid development of renewable energy to the energy system and the rigid demand for energy consumption growth by economic development are serious challenges facing the transformation work. "Therefore, we should take into account the balanced relationship between transformation and supply guarantee, and design a scientific indicator system as the starting point for the evaluation and management of new energy systems, so that system construction can have rules to follow."
Evaluation of new energy systems requires diversified development
Huang Hui, senior director of the NRDC Energy Transformation Project, said that the new energy system is a systematic change that covers multiple goals and constraints such as structural adjustment, energy security, and technological and mechanism innovation. Energy transformation faces challenges such as intensifying climate change, increasing instability in energy supply, and a complex and ever-changing international situation. "The construction of a new energy system requires scientific formulation of phased planning goals based on in-depth analysis and judgment of changes in energy supply and demand, energy transformation and new trends in technological development. The indicators selected should also be diversified to support new energy sources. Construction of different dimensions of the system."
Wang Shujuan introduced the research results of "Connotation of New Energy Systems and Comprehensive Evaluation Indicator System". She pointed out that the purpose of establishing this indicator system is to conduct comparative analysis between countries and provinces, find differences and their respective advantages and disadvantages, and seek experiences that can be learned from. Starting from the connotation and goals of the construction of a new energy system, the research team selected 35 quantitative indicators such as carbon emission intensity, social energy cost, energy self-sufficiency rate, proportion of regulatory power, and recycling of renewable resources, based on four core dimensions: climate mitigation (low-carbon, exchange increase), efficient development (economy, efficiency), safety and innovation), and established a three-level indicator system, combined with public historical data and related research. The process of China's new energy system construction from 2018 to 2060 is analyzed.
Wang Shujuan said,"Overall, in the future, my country needs to accelerate the deployment of new energy sources such as wind and scenery and increase utilization rates, improve market mechanisms, and improve resource allocation efficiency, in order to improve energy self-sufficiency and promote green development of the social economy, and continue to lead the innovation frontier to provide assistance for the development of renewable energy."
Take Shanxi Province and Guangdong Province as examples. Wang Shujuan said that as a major energy-producing province, Shanxi Province has higher scores in indicators such as energy self-sufficiency rate and energy cost, while the ratio of coal to thermal power is high, resulting in lower evaluation scores for indicators such as non-fossil energy ratio and carbon dioxide emissions. As a major economic province, Guangdong has higher energy costs, but its ratio of new energy production and consumption is higher than that of Shanxi, so the overall score is higher. "Therefore, for Shanxi Province, while making existing units green and cleaner, reducing carbon and increasing efficiency, gradually reducing the proportion of thermal power generation, gradually increasing renewable energy power generation and promoting electrification are the key to the construction of its new energy system. For Guangdong, increasing energy production and improving energy security while ensuring clean, green and efficient development of energy is the key to the construction of a new energy system."
