Frequent extreme weather requires strengthening crisis awareness and bottom-line thinking

In the face of the challenge of global climate change, no one can stay aloof and remain alone. Frequent extreme weather and accompanying natural disasters have increasingly become an important risk point in social governance. This tests the disaster prevention and relief system and emergency management capabilities of a region or even a country, as well as the weak links and shortcomings of the system.

Recently, the north of my country has experienced "scorching heat", while the south has experienced "violent plum blossoms". "Drought in the south and drought in the north, and droughts and floods coexist", and all the central and local governments are making every effort to promote disaster prevention and reduction work.

From the cold wave, freezing rain, and tornadoes at the beginning of the year to heavy rains and record-breaking temperatures after the summer, extreme weather occurs frequently and affects many parts of the country. Looking around the world, severe heat waves have hit India, and temperatures in many places have exceeded 45 ° C for several days in a row; Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, has suffered the most serious natural disaster in history, with heavy rains, mudslides, and floods displacing hundreds of thousands of people; Even the United Arab Emirates, a typical desert country, has suffered the heaviest rainfall in 75 years since April this year, with more than a year of rainfall falling in one day... The "deep water" situation has a real and strong impact, which has greatly boosted the global attention to climate change.

"Our climate is collapsing, and the signs have never been clearer." In recent years, under the combined influence of multiple factors such as global warming and El Niño and La Niña events, the "once-in-a-century" and "once-in-a-millennium" meteorological disasters have become increasingly "once-in-a-year" occurrences. In 2020, Europe suffered heavy losses from the storm of the century; in 2021, the western United States suffered the most serious drought crisis since 1200 years; in 2022, some areas of Australia suffered "once-in-500 years" floods; In 2023, Beijing will experience the strongest rainstorm in "140 years"... Climate change simulations show that global surface temperatures will continue to rise at least until the middle of this century, and the resulting extreme weather such as extreme temperatures, heavy precipitation, and typhoons will be more and more frequent. The latest "Global Risk Report" released by the World Economic Forum bluntly stated that in the next decade, the primary global risk will not be armed conflict or social division, but extreme weather events. China will be one of the countries most affected by climate change, and it must also prevent and respond to extreme weather.

"Extreme" often means meeting or even exceeding known limits. Frequent extreme weather and accompanying natural disasters have increasingly become an important risk point in social governance. In theory, disaster risk is the result of the combined effect of disaster weather intensity, social and economic exposure, and disaster prevention and reduction capabilities. If the frequency and intensity of extreme weather are obviously showing an upward curve, and economic and social development will inevitably increase exposure, then if we want to reduce the severity of disasters, we must comprehensively improve the awareness and ability of disaster prevention and reduction. In terms of practice, it is necessary not only to change our mentality in a timely manner, understand the trends of extreme weather and the characteristics of disasters, and establish the necessary awareness of crisis; we must also re-examine the construction of disaster prevention and reduction in each scenario, so that system construction, policy guidance, engineering facilities, and response Rules, etc. can adapt to new climate change and strengthen bottom-line thinking. As some climate experts have pointed out, current climate feasibility arguments are generally based on meteorological and disaster data from the past few decades, but future climate changes will not be linear, and future risk estimates should also be made based on climate models.

According to Nassim Taleb, the father of the "Black Swan", the high incidence of extreme events not only brings losses, but also enhances the inherent "anti-fragility" of the economic system. It can be said that frequent extreme weather tests a region and even a country's disaster prevention and relief system and emergency management capabilities, as well as the weak links and shortcomings of the system. For example, in order to reduce the impact of frequent droughts and floods on agricultural production, some regions have also begun to develop climate-resilient agriculture according to local conditions, or cultivate new varieties with strong climate adaptability, or strengthen the construction of rainwater harvesting and water diversion projects, or improve reservoirs. Carry out risk removal and reinforcement and improve farmland drainage and irrigation systems, etc. For example, as extreme weather frequently leads to urban waterlogging, there are more and more thoughts and actions to improve urban resilience and build sponge cities. The importance of climate feasibility in urban planning and design, management systems, key project construction, and update of fortification standards continues to improve. Although natural disasters are unpredictable, if we can do enough work in normal times, have strong infrastructure, and provide adequate emergency warning and efficient actions, the losses caused by disasters can be minimized.

In addition to proactive emergency response, proactive mitigation is also an important strategy to deal with climate change. In the face of the challenge of global climate change, no one can stay aloof and remain alone. However, the current situation of international climate governance cooperation is not optimistic. There are differences in the positions of developed and developing countries, and there are still many challenges in forming consensus. Moreover, some countries only care about their own small calculations and are keen to play the game of mutual blame, seriously interfering with global climate governance. In the past few years, through the efforts of all mankind, many people believe that carbon emissions should have dropped, but they are still at their peak. According to the judgment of climate experts, with the existence of multilateral cooperation platforms such as the United Nations and the rapid advancement of renewable energy technologies, if resolute action is taken, it is still possible to achieve the goal of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions by at least half compared with 2010 by 2030. The most important thing is to unite as one and act again.

Whether 2024 will break last year's climate data records, and whether global temperatures will get higher and higher in the future... At present, various issues about climate change are lingering in the minds of many people. Although climate change is extremely complex and uncertain, as long as we take positive actions, there will be less confusion, fewer risks, and a better tomorrow will be worth looking forward to.