Over the past 73 years, the trend of warming in China has been obvious! The warmest four seasons have occurred in these years
The world has experienced the hottest year in history, the United States Hawaii wildfires engulfed the entire resort town, and our country has been hit by extreme rainstorms and cold spells...... In just one year, extreme weather has occurred frequently in various countries, and the climate crisis caused by global warming has become increasingly prominent, which has once again sounded the alarm for mankind. The theme of this year's World Meteorological Day is "Frontline of Climate Action", and it has become a global consensus to take proactive action to address climate change. China Weather Network and the National Climate Center jointly launched a special plan to comprehensively sort out China's temperature big data from 1951 to 2023, deeply interpret the changes in China's cold and warm in the past 73 years, and jointly discuss how to effectively respond to the climate crisis.
The era of "global boiling" has arrived!
In 2023, the average temperature of the world and China will reach a record high
The latest report released by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) shows that 2023 was the hottest year on global meteorological records, with the global near-surface average temperature about 1.45°C above pre-industrial levels. Notably, this figure is just one step away from the 1.5°C limit target set by the 2015 Paris Agreement. In July 2023, UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in a statement: "The era of global warming is over, and the era of global boiling has arrived." ”
My country is no exception. In 2023, the average temperature in China will reach 10.7°C, breaking the warmest record set in 2021 and becoming the new "hottest year in history". It can also be seen from the evolution of the annual average temperature from 1951 to 2023 that the warming trend in China is obvious, especially since the 21st century. The three hottest years in 73 years are the three years that have just passed (2021, 2022, 2023). A hotter future has become a reality.
From the seasonal point of view, China's spring, summer, autumn and winter are also warming, among which the warming trend in winter is the most obvious, but the interannual fluctuation is also large. The warmest spring and summer were in 2022, the warmest autumn in 2023, and the warmest winter in 2016.
Zhou Bing, chief expert of climate services at the China Meteorological Administration, has been closely monitoring China's climate change, and he said that China's average temperature rise rate is higher than the global average over the same period, and the average temperature in eight regions (North China, Northeast China, East China, Central China, South China, Southwest China, Northwest China and Qinghai-Tibet) is on the rise. Among them, the Qinghai-Tibet region has the highest warming rate, with an average increase of 0.37°C per 10 years, followed by North China, with an average increase of 0.33°C per 10 years. South and Southwest China are warming at a relatively slow pace, with an average increase of 0.18°C and 0.17°C per decade, respectively.
Since the beginning of the 21st century, the occurrence of extreme warm events has become the norm and record-breaking
For the general public, changes in average temperature are relatively mild and imperceptible, while changes in extreme temperatures are more intuitive and more tangible.
For example, in the early summer of 2023, North China and the Huanghuai region have encountered five rounds of high temperature and heat waves, among which during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday (June 22-24), the highest temperature at the observatory in the southern suburbs of Beijing reached or exceeded 40°C for three consecutive days, which was the first time since the station had meteorological records. The unusually "hot" Dragon Boat Festival holiday should have impressed many people who were in Beijing at the time.
For another example, from June to August 2022, a large-scale high temperature weather process in central and eastern China lasted for 79 days, and the Central Meteorological Observatory issued the first red warning for high temperature since the formulation of the Measures for the Release of Meteorological Disaster Warnings by the Central Meteorological Observatory. The daily maximum temperature in Beibei, Chongqing reached 45 °C for two consecutive days, and netizens called Beibei "Beibei".
China Weather Network counted the dates of the occurrence of the maximum temperature extremes at all national meteorological stations in China, and found that nearly seventy percent of the stations were concentrated in the 21st century. Especially in the past three years, there have been 503 stations with the highest temperature breaking the historical record, of which nearly 60% of the stations have exceeded 40°C.
Not only is it hotter during the day, but it's also hotter at night, and it's even hotter than ever. In the 21st century, the highest record of minimum temperature at more than eighty percent of national meteorological stations in China occurred in the 21st century, and in the past three years, the number of stations with the highest minimum temperature breaking the record is as high as 714, which is more than the sum of any previous decade. In the case of Shapingba station in Chongqing, for example, before 2022, the highest minimum temperature recorded at the station was 32.8°C. However, during the high temperatures from July to August 2022, this record was broken six times, and finally settled at 34.9°C, improving the original record by a full 2.1°C.
Why is the climate warming still "crying"?
The frequency of extreme cold events decreased, but their intensity did not decrease
I believe that many people will feel this way: now the summer is hotter, but the winter is not warmer, and it is common to be "frozen and cry". This is indeed the case. According to Zhou Bing, since the 21st century, the number of extreme cold events in China has decreased, but the intensity has not weakened.
The data backs it up. The dates of the occurrence of minimum temperature extremes at all national stations in China are mainly concentrated in the sixties and seventies of the last century. Since the beginning of the 21st century, the number of stations with record-breaking temperatures has decreased significantly, but it is worth noting that strong cold spells with strong intensity, wide range and high impact still occur from time to time.
From December 14 to 17, 2023, China experienced the strongest comprehensive intensity of the cold wave in the same period in history. The cumulative duration of low temperature below 0°C in Beijing exceeded 300 hours, which was the longest continuous low temperature in December since complete records began in 1951.
In late January 2023, three cold waves hit China one after another, and the minimum temperature of Jintao Meteorological Station in Amur Town, Mohe City, Heilongjiang Province reached minus 53 °C, setting a new record low temperature since China's meteorological records began.
From November 4 to 9, 2021, China suffered a nationwide cold wave weather process, and its comprehensive intensity index reached the fourth place in history.
From January 20 to 25, 2016, a BOSS-level cold wave swept through China, and Guangzhou experienced the first snowfall since the founding of the People's Republic of China.
From January 10 to February 2, 2008, the southern part of China suffered four consecutive low-temperature rain, snow and freezing weather.
Is the strong cold wave a slap in the face of global warming? The two are not contradictory
From time to time, strong cold waves come to brush up on the sense of existence, and people can't help but ask, what about global warming? In fact, global warming and strong cold waves are not contradictory. Zhou Bing said that global warming is not a general and uniform warming, but a more extreme heat and colder. Under the background of global warming, the Arctic has increased significantly, and the atmospheric meridional circulation is more prominent, which is conducive to the emergence of strong cold waves.
The Arctic region is the most sensitive region to global climate change, warming two to three times faster than the global rate. Under the warming trend, the Arctic vortex weakens, and the control of the cold air in the polar vortex is also weakened, so the polar cold air is more likely to split and move southward to affect China, forming a cold wave.
Global warming also causes the atmosphere to become more unstable, with meridional circulation becoming more prominent, i.e., ridges of high pressure stronger and troughs of low pressure deeper. The trough of low pressure is like a slide between different latitudes, and the cold air is more likely to pour down the slide and penetrate deep into the south to affect our country, bringing drastic cooling, and under the control of the high pressure ridge, the temperature will rise all the way, often to the point of breaking records. This is also the main reason why China often encounters extreme cold and warm transitions in autumn and winter in recent years.
In December 2023, most parts of our country experienced a sharp turn of cold and warm. Taking Shijiazhuang in Hebei Province as an example, on December 8, the maximum temperature in Shijiazhuang reached 25.5 °C, breaking the historical record of the highest temperature in December. But then, the temperature plummeted like a roller coaster, and by December 20, the maximum temperature dropped to just -6.3°C, a cumulative drop of more than 30°C, and it felt like it was crossing from early summer to mid-winter in a few days.
A similar situation occurred during the National Day holiday in 2022. In the first half of the National Day holiday that year, China first experienced the hottest National Day in history, with the latest high temperature day in many places, and then suffered a sharp cooling, and the highest temperature in many places broke the lowest record in October. Due to the drastic cooling, the Central Meteorological Observatory also issued a cold wave warning for the first time when the minimum temperature did not reach the target.
At the forefront of climate action What can we do?
Warming caused by human activities has led to significant changes at many levels of China's climate system. The most immediate impact is that extreme heat events occur more frequently, more intensively, and last longer, which has a serious impact on agricultural production, energy supply, human health and other fields. With the increase of temperature, the water content in the atmosphere increases, and the frequency and intensity of extreme rainstorms also increase. In addition, the continued warming of the highlands has led to the melting of glaciers, snow cover and permafrost.
While the theme of the World Meteorological Calendar Year rarely touches on climate action, this year's theme, "Climate Action at the Forefront", reflects the sense of crisis brought about by climate change and the urgency of taking effective measures to address it.
My country was one of the first countries to participate in the international scientific assessment of climate change. In order to achieve the goal of responding to climate change, China has established a climate change organization and actively formulated and implemented a series of climate change strategies, regulations, policies, standards and actions.
In recent years, the Chinese government has been implementing a national strategy to actively respond to climate change, and unswervingly follow the path of ecological priority, green and low-carbon development. At present, China's installed capacity of renewable energy ranks first in the world, the total carbon storage of forest and grass vegetation in China has reached 11.443 billion tons, and the national carbon emission trading market covers about 5.1 billion tons of annual carbon dioxide emissions, making it the largest carbon market covering greenhouse gas emissions in the world.
At present, China has basically built the world's largest integrated meteorological observation system, and has become the only country that operates four low-earth orbit meteorological satellites at dawn, morning, afternoon and inclination at the same time, providing strong support for meteorological forecasting services and scientific research. In 2023, the national public satisfaction with meteorological services will be 92.4 points, and meteorological information will recover 560 billion yuan of losses for the public, and meteorological services will achieve remarkable results in ensuring economic and social development and safety.
In the face of increasingly frequent extreme disaster weather events, the most effective way for human society to save itself is to give early warning. Statistics show that 24-hour warning can reduce disaster losses by 30%. Since 2015, China has gradually established a national early warning and release system, forming a government-led, early warning first, departmental linkage, and social participation in disaster prevention and relief work mechanism, and the role of meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation as the first line of defense has become increasingly prominent. At the same time, China has also built a multi-disaster early warning system in Asia to provide technical support and assistance for disaster early warning in Asia and countries along the Belt and Road.
In recent years, China's meteorological departments at all levels have also been committed to publicizing the current situation of climate change to the public, going deep into cities, rural areas, communities and schools, carrying out all-round, multi-angle and multi-form science popularization activities, disseminating the concept of green and low-carbon, and awakening the public's awareness of low-carbon environmental protection.
The era of "global boiling" has arrived, and all countries should work together to raise awareness of climate risks, strengthen preparedness and response capabilities, jointly respond to the climate crisis, and reduce the losses caused by climate change. For the general public, eating less takeaway, having one more green trip, saving every drop of water and every kilowatt-hour of electricity, can also contribute to the fight against climate change. Let's work together to protect our planet!
