The joys and worries of global renewable energy development

Recently, the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) and Ember, a global energy think tank, have released reports to take stock of the progress made in the use of renewable energy for power generation around the world.

Relevant studies believe that renewable energy will continue to usher in rapid development in the context of the current instability of global fossil energy supply and the increasing climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions.

One

On May 8, Ember, a global energy think tank, released a report saying that in 2023, renewable energy will account for more than 30% of global power generation for the first time, and nearly 40% of the world's electricity will come from low-carbon energy sources, including nuclear energy; As a result, the CO2 intensity of global electricity generation has reached a record low, 12% below its peak in 2007. According to the report, 2023 may be a landmark turning point for the peak of carbon emissions in the power sector.

The report released by Ember, a global energy think tank, is based on statistics from the United Nations, the International Energy Agency, some regional international organizations and many governments. The report covers 80 major countries around the world, accounting for 92% of global electricity demand, as well as historical data for 215 countries.

According to the report, solar energy is the main source of global electricity growth in 2023 and a bright spot for renewable energy development. Solar maintained its position as the fastest-growing source of electricity for the 19th consecutive year and overtook wind as the largest new source of electricity for the second year in a row.

In April this year, the International Renewable Energy Agency released the "Renewable Energy Capacity Statistics 2024" report, showing that in 2023, the global renewable energy generation capacity will increase by 473 GW, an increase of 13.9%, and the total renewable energy power generation capacity will reach 3,870 GW, setting a new record. 86% of the world's new electricity generation comes from renewable sources.

The IRENA report also mentions that solar and wind are the absolute protagonists of global renewable energy growth, accounting for 98% of the total increase. By the end of 2023, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaics, hydropower, and wind power will account for 37%, 33%, and 26% of the world's total installed renewable energy capacity, respectively.

Two

Data shows that since the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015, international investment in renewable energy has almost tripled by 2022; In 2023, investments related to the energy transition have reached a record of more than $2 trillion.

The world's major economies are now taking action to integrate climate change and the energy transition into broader economic strategies. Some analysts believe that the strengthening of national policy support, the rise in fossil fuel prices, and the increasing concern about energy security issues are driving the development of global renewable energy power generation.

Although renewable energy has developed strongly in recent years, the problems and hidden dangers are also prominent.

The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) pointed out that in the context of the continuous acceleration of global renewable energy development, the problem of uneven distribution of geographical and technological deployment has become prominent, and more attention should be paid to the energy transition process of developing countries in the future.

According to the International Renewable Energy Agency, in 2023, Asia led the way in renewable energy development, accounting for around 69% of the world's new installed capacity. During the same period, installed renewable energy capacity increased by 71.2 GW in Europe, 34.9 GW in North America and 22.4 GW in South America. By contrast, Africa's installed renewable energy capacity increased by only 2.7 GW, with a cumulative installed capacity of 62 GW, accounting for only 1.6% of the global total.

In terms of capital investment, emerging market and developing economies will receive only half of global investment related to the energy transition in 2023. Of these, 120 developing countries attract only 15% of global investment in renewable energy, and sub-Saharan Africa, as an energy-poor region, receives less than 1.5% of the highest share.

IRENA Director-General LaCarmela warned that the relative concentration of renewable energy technologies and deployments across the globe could widen the gap in the pace of decarbonisation across countries, posing a significant risk to global climate goals.

Three

At the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) last December, world leaders agreed on the "UAE Consensus" to triple the world's renewable energy generation capacity by 2030 (i.e. more than 11 terawatts) by 2023. The target would reach 60% of the world's renewable electricity share by 2030 and almost halve carbon emissions from the power sector.

According to the International Renewable Energy Agency's World Energy Transition Outlook – 1.5°C Pathway, the world will need to add 7.2 terawatts of renewable energy capacity over the next seven years to achieve this target, and current data shows that progress is far from enough. According to estimates, the growth rate of global renewable energy installed capacity still needs to double, and the annual new installed capacity will reach about 1,100 GW before it is expected to reach the set target.

BlackRock, a world-renowned investment manager, pointed out that although global investment in the energy transition reached a record level last year, it is still far from meeting the investment required for a successful energy transition, and the company expects the global renewable energy investment demand to reach $4 trillion per year in the future.

Responding to growing energy demand is one of the biggest challenges facing the global energy transition. In terms of energy demand, global electricity demand rose to a record high in 2023, with more than half of the electricity demand growth coming from electric vehicles, heat pumps, electrolyzers, air conditioning, and data centers.

Some media have pointed out that the overall investment in global renewable energy is still insufficient and the uneven distribution of resources has led to unbalanced regional development, and the anti-globalization and trade and investment protectionism pursued by some countries have further undermined the greater progress that could have been made in this field globally.

In response, the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) recommends continuing to scale up financing, strengthen international cooperation, and prioritize renewable energy investment in developing countries.