The synergistic effect of pollution reduction and carbon reduction is emerging
2013 "Ten Atmospheric Rules" Since its implementation, by vigorously promoting the adjustment of the energy industry and transportation structure, reducing the emission of air pollutants and greenhouse gases from the source, the national coal-fired boilers have been reduced from nearly 500,000 to less than 100,000 at present, the northern region has completed the rural scattered coal treatment of a total of 35 million households, 1.05 billion kilowatts of coal-fired units have completed the ultra-low emission transformation, 690 million tons of steel production capacity has been completed and is being completed to exceed the low emission transformation, and more than 30 million old and high-emission motor vehicles have been eliminated. The relevant person in charge of the Department of Atmospheric Environment of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment said at the 2023 annual meeting of the China Clean Air Policy Partnership (CCAPP) and the launch of the report "China's Carbon Neutrality and Clean Air Synergy Pathway (2023)".
"According to preliminary estimates, these structural adjustment measures have reduced coal consumption by more than 500 million tons, emitted more than 11 million tons of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides, and reduced carbon dioxide emissions by more than 1 billion tons. The relevant person in charge of the Department of Atmospheric Environment of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment said that there is a good synergistic effect between carbon reduction and pollution reduction, and the average annual concentration of PM2.5 in 2013~2022 has decreased by 57%, and the number of heavily polluted days has decreased by 92%, making China the country with the fastest air pollution control in the world.
There are several bright spots in the air quality improvements
In 2022, the concentration of air pollutants in the whole country and key regions decreased compared with 2021. The average annual concentration of PM2.5 in 339 cities at and above the prefecture level was 29 mg/m3, a decrease of 35.6% compared with 2015. The number of cities with annual average PM2.5 concentrations below the national second-level standard rose to 253, an increase of 139% compared with 2015. From 2015 to 2022, the three-year moving average of annual average PM2.5 concentrations in China and key regions continued to decline.
"The annual average concentration of ozone (O3) in the 90th percentile of the maximum 8-hour daily in 339 cities at and above the prefecture level is 145 mg/m3, an increase of 5.8% compared with 2021. According to the "China Carbon Neutrality and Clean Air Synergy Pathway (2023)" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report"), the number of cities with annual O3 concentration evaluation values reaching the national second-level standard in 2022 is 247, accounting for 72.9%, and the number of days with O3 exceeding the standard in cities across the country is 6.5%. From the three-year moving average, the concentration of O3 in the country and key regions continued to increase in 2015~2019, while it remained flat or decreased slightly in 2020~2022. In 2022, the number of days with severe PM2.5 pollution and above in cities across the country accounted for 0.7%, a decrease of 75% compared with 2015.
At the same time, the peak PM2.5 concentration during heavy pollution periods also dropped significantly. After nearly ten years of air pollution control, the spatial pattern of air quality in China has undergone significant changes.
The relevant person in charge of the Department of Atmospheric Environment of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment said that although some achievements have been made, there is still a long way to go to improve air quality.
In 2022, the national average PM2.5 pollution meteorological conditions were slightly unfavorable compared with 2021. Among them, the meteorological conditions in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta are conducive to the reduction of PM2.5 concentrations, and the PM2.5 pollution meteorological conditions index decreased by about 6.1% and 1.7% respectively compared with 2021, and decreased by 5.4% and 6.9% respectively compared with the average of the past five years.
However, the air pollution diffusion conditions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and its surroundings, the Chengdu-Chongqing region, and the Fenwei Plain deviated from the average of the last five years and the average of 2021, which was conducive to the increase of PM2.5 concentration. The analysis results of the O3 meteorological condition assessment index show that the national average O3 meteorological conditions in May~September 2022 are relatively unfavorable, which is conducive to the increase of ozone concentration. The deteriorating meteorological conditions caused the O3 concentrations in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and surrounding areas, the Yangtze River Delta region, the Fenwei Plain, and the Chengdu-Chongqing region to increase by 8.5%, 8.1%, 3.0%, and 11.0% year-on-year, respectively, and increased by 2.7%, 6.4%, 2.1%, and 10.7% respectively compared with the average values in the past five years.
The governance system has been further deepened
In 2022, China's air pollution control and carbon emission management will be further deepened. The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China emphasized that "we will work together to promote carbon reduction, pollution reduction, green expansion and growth", 7 departments jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for Synergy of Pollution Reduction and Carbon Reduction", and 15 departments including the Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued the "Action Plan for Deepening the Elimination of Heavy Polluted Weather, Ozone Pollution Prevention and Control and Pollution Control of Diesel Trucks", proposing to "carry out synergistic actions for air pollution reduction and carbon reduction". The whole society has further deepened the consensus on the necessity of promoting collaborative governance, and gradually formed four key research directions around the theory and practice of the construction of collaborative governance system.
"Under the overall requirements of integrated planning, deployment, promotion and assessment of pollution reduction and carbon reduction, China's collaborative governance policy has continued to develop in practice. The report said that the effectiveness of the administrative control measures of collaborative governance guided by access and assessment has gradually been brought into play, and the pilot work of carbon emission environmental impact assessment and carbon monitoring and evaluation of key industry construction projects and industrial parks has been steadily advanced, and the relevant content of greenhouse gas emission control has been included in the "14th Five-Year Plan" pollution prevention and control effectiveness assessment, and the total energy consumption control requirements have been further optimized.
The market economy incentive policies with the carbon market as the main body have been continuously improved and innovated in application, and the carbon market covering the largest scale of emissions in the world has been built, and the pilot climate investment and financing project has involved about 2 trillion yuan. The social governance policy system for pollution reduction and carbon reduction, with the broad participation of the whole society, has been further improved, and new progress has been made in the catalogue of low-carbon technologies, carbon inclusiveness, and corporate carbon emission information disclosure.
All localities are actively promoting the implementation of pollution reduction and carbon reduction. By the end of 2022, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Zhejiang, Anhui, Fujian, Jiangxi, Shaanxi, Ningxia and other provinces (regions) have officially issued implementation documents on local synergies in pollution reduction and carbon reduction to promote local practice. "However, in general, there is no obvious correlation between the carbon peak status of Chinese cities and the economic level, total carbon emissions, and PM2.5 concentration standards. According to the report, during 2015~2021, only 105 of the 335 cities at and above the prefecture level in the country achieved a coordinated decline in the annual average concentration of PM2.5 and CO2 emissions, which was the same as the number in 2015~2020, and the annual average concentration of PM2.5 and CO2 emissions in 9 cities showed an increase trend, a decrease of 8 compared with 2015~2020. PM2.5 concentration and CO2 emissions in most cities have not been reduced in tandem, and the synergy of pollution reduction and carbon reduction needs to be further promoted at the city level.
There are new changes in the structural transformation of high-carbon industries
Promoting the structural transformation of high-carbon industries such as energy, industry, and transportation, and increasing the promotion and application of clean and low-carbon technologies are important measures for China to achieve coordinated development of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in the process of promoting carbon neutrality.
The report reviews the structural transformation process and the development of governance technology in energy, industry, transportation and other aspects in detail, and analyzes and identifies the potential problems in promoting the collaborative path of clean air in China.
In terms of energy structure transformation, there have been new changes in the structural adjustment trend. Under the "dual" stimulus of energy security and energy transition, coal and new energy have grown in both directions. In 2022, coal consumption accounted for 56.2%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, and non-fossil energy consumption accounted for 17.5%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from 2021. Renewable energy power generation reached a new high, with full-caliber grid-connected solar, wind power, nuclear power and hydropower generation increasing by 31.2%, 16.2%, 2.5% and 1.0% year-on-year respectively, solar and wind power generation exceeded 1 trillion kWh for the first time, and the installed capacity of renewable energy exceeded 1.2 billion kilowatts, historically exceeding the installed capacity of coal power. As the "ballast stone" in the process of energy transition, there is a new boom in coal power construction.
In terms of industrial structure transformation, new industries, new business forms and new models have grown rapidly. In 2022, the added value of the secondary industry increased from 39.4% to 39.9%, the added value of the high-tech manufacturing industry increased by 7.4% over the previous year, and the proportion of the added value of industries above designated size increased from 15.1% to 15.5%, and the output of new energy vehicles was 7.003 million units, an increase of 90.5% over the previous year.
In terms of transportation structure adjustment, the transportation structure has been further optimized. A total of 117 cities across the country have carried out the creation of national public transport cities, 46 cities have won the title of "National Public Transport City Construction Demonstration City", 97 cities have reached the assessment and evaluation of green travel creation, the proportion of green travel has reached more than 70%, and the satisfaction rate of green travel services has reached more than 80%. The average fuel consumption of the passenger car industry has been reduced to 4.10 liters per 100 kilometers, the comprehensive energy consumption per unit of railway transportation workload has been reduced to 3.91 tons of standard coal per million converted tons of kilometers, the production and sales of new energy vehicles have increased by 96.9% and 93.4% respectively, and the number of charging infrastructure in the country has reached 5.2 million units.
In terms of the construction of new power systems, we will vigorously promote the safe and reliable substitution of new energy. By the end of 2022, China's installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic power generation was 365 million and 393 million kilowatts respectively, ranking first in the world. The construction of the "Shagehuang" power station is progressing steadily, and more than 200 GWA Shagohuang projects are under construction. In 2022, the average utilization rate of wind power and photovoltaic power reached 96.8%, and the average utilization rate of photovoltaic power reached 98.3%. The structure and form of the power system have been gradually optimized, and the power flow distribution of "west-to-east power transmission and north-south power transmission" has been continuously strengthened, with 35,100 kilometers of new transmission lines of 220 kV and above in operation, and 155.31 million kVA of 220 kV and above substation equipment newly put into operation. In the future, wind and solar power are expected to account for 70% of the new power system, and various types of thermal power will undertake the important tasks of peak regulation and frequency regulation and providing inertia.
It can be seen that China's industrial structure has continued to be adjusted and optimized steadily, and phased progress has been made in many aspects and fields, injecting new impetus into the realization of high-quality economic development.
Adapting to local conditions can improve air quality in depth
Carbon emission change is one of the basic indicators reflecting the process of regional low-carbon development. So, what is the current progress of coordinated emission reduction of carbon dioxide and air pollutants in various regions and industries in China?
According to the report, in 2005~2020, CO2 emissions in most provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) in the country showed a fluctuating upward trend, and major energy provinces and industrial provinces dominated the change trend of CO2 emissions in China. Among them, the power sector is the leading factor for emission change in most regions, especially in the energy regions of Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia and Shanxi, the industrial sector is the main contributor to emission change in Hebei, Henan and Sichuan, and the contribution of civil and transportation emissions in developed eastern regions such as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong is relatively prominent.
During this period, the carbon emission intensity of most provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) in China continued to decline, and 25 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) completed the regional carbon intensity targets of the 13th Five-Year Plan. In 2005~2015, 31 cities in China have achieved strong decoupling of economic growth and carbon emissions, and 185 cities have achieved weak decoupling of economic growth and carbon emissions.
At the same time, land-use change and terrestrial carbon sequestration are also important. Since the 80s, a series of ecological protection and restoration projects (such as returning farmland to forest) have significantly increased the forest area, and land use change processes such as the expansion of forest area have contributed about 44% of the carbon sink of China's terrestrial ecosystems.
During 1980~2019, China's terrestrial ecosystem showed an increasing trend. The existing forests in China are dominated by middle-aged and young forests, and the forests in the early growth stage generally have stronger carbon sequestration capacity.
During 2000~2040, with the increase of forest age in China, the carbon storage of forest vegetation in China will increase. Terrestrial carbon sinks are the result of ecosystem responses to external disturbance processes, so to maintain terrestrial carbon sinks at a high level for a long time, it is necessary to optimize the forest age structure through scientific forest management measures, so as to win a time window for industrial emission reduction in the "carbon neutrality" goal.
Not only that, the report said that during 2015~2021, China's industrial and civil sectors showed positive synergistic effects on CO2 emission reduction and PM2.5 pollution improvement, especially in the coal burning process, showing that the structural adjustment and scattered coal remediation measures during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period have achieved remarkable results. The concentration of PM2.5 in road traffic further decreased by 46%, but carbon emissions still showed a significant growth trend. The CO2 emission reduction and PM2.5 improvement in the power and heating sector have a significant negative effect, which is due to the continuous growth of coal power and the development of gas power in recent years, which has led to the increase of carbon emissions, and the ultra-low emission transformation of electricity has promoted the reduction of PM2.5 concentration. In terms of coal burning, more than one-third of provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) have achieved positive synergies between CO2 emissions and PM2.5 pollution improvement. PM2.5 pollution caused by fuel has generally decreased in all provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities), while CO2 emissions in most provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) have shown an upward trend. CO2 emissions caused by gas generally increased, but its contribution to PM2.5 pollution as a clean energy source did not increase significantly.
According to the report, the implementation of a coordinated path of carbon reduction and pollution reduction that is tailored to local conditions and highlights key points can play a key role in improving air quality in China.
The study shows that the proportion of fossil energy in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and its surrounding areas is still as high as 43.6% and the PM2.5 exposure level is 14.4 mg/m3 under the carbon neutrality goal in 2060 due to the large proportion of steel and cement industries and the difficulty of decarbonization, while the carbon emission reduction potential in the Pearl River Delta region mainly comes from the power and transportation sectors, and the proportion of fossil energy can be reduced to 15.9%, and the carbon emission reduction potential of the Yangtze River Delta mainly comes from the power and industrial sectors, and the PM2.5 exposure level can be reduced to 7.4 mg/m3.
"The transformation of the energy structure of the power industry and targeted governance are key measures to reduce emissions, which will significantly increase the proportion of renewable energy power generation (>70%) and greatly improve air quality in densely populated areas. Taking the steel industry as an example, the large-scale deployment of electric furnace short-process steelmaking process in the green power system can reduce the emissions of major air pollutants by more than 80% by 2060.
